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Consumer Confidence Up ... Kind Of

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Consumers are spending somewhat more, but that is tempered by a stubborn sense among consumers that the economy is better, but still chronically ill. Discover's U.S. Spending Monitor says consumer confidence grew last month, as it did in January, driven by a more optimistic outlook for the economy and personal finances.

The daily poll consumer confidence poll, which tracks 8,200 consumers, jumped 4.4 points from the previous month to 94.9. The firm also posted a 10-percentage-point increase in the number of respondents who said the economy is improving versus December last year. The poll also recorded a 5-percentage-point increase in the number of people who said their personal finances are better.

The study also shows that for the first time since January last year, about a third of consumers feel the economy is getting better. That sentiment is up two percentage points versus January this year.

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But the overall sentiment about the state of the U.S. economy is not good, with over half of consumers saying the U.S. economy is poor -- the lowest level since January last year. And only 12% of respondents said the economy is excellent or good, which actually reflects improvement over last month and a 3-percentage point improvement over February 2011. Men are more confident in the economy than women -- 35% versus 29%.

In terms of individual finances, over 36% of consumers now rate their finances as either excellent or good -- the highest figure in more than a year and a jump of 2 points from the month earlier. Nearly one-quarter of consumers believe their personal finances are getting better. Forty-three percent view their finances as getting worse -- 4 percentage points lower than last month and the lowest level since October 2007.

There were fewer consumers with higher incomes (above $75,000 annually) and lower incomes (below $40,000 annually) viewing their personal finances as worse compared to last month, according to the study, which said that the portion of middle-class-income consumers who view their personal finances as getting worse remained unchanged at 42% from January this year. And about half of consumers said they had liquid capital after paying bills last month, which is the highest level since March 2009, according to the study.

Although Americans are still unlikely to spend more, the number of people who said they plan to do so is up slightly to 28%, a 4-point increase from January. But that spend increase is being devoted to staples and essentials: the firm says the most significant increase came from a spike in household expenses such as gasoline and groceries.

And with the upward trend of gasoline prices, which are likely to head north of $4, about 44% of consumers said they expect to spend more, an increase of 7 percentage points compared to the prior month. The company points out that when gas prices hit $4.11 in July of 2008, more than 57% of those surveyed said they expected spending on household expenses to increase in the next month.

In terms of home improvement spend, 14% said they would spend more this spring, a 2-point increase and the highest level for the month of February since 2008. In terms of purely discretionary purchase, 10% said they would spend more on things like movies and going out to dinner -- a two-percentage-point increase. Consumers said big-ticket expenses will remain flat.

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