• by Joe Mandese  @mp_joemandese, August 1, 2003

Through the first half of 2003, MindShare has taken in more than half a billion dollars in media billings from new business gains, the strongest performance in what so far has been a relatively low turnover year for media account changes.

By contrast, Starcom MediaVest has sustained a net billings loss of more than $150 million in media billings, according to the first half 2002 edition of the MAP Barometer.

According to Advertising Age estimates based on RECMA (Research Reports on Media Agency Networks), MindShare placed $8.65 billion in U.S. media buys during 2002. By comparison, Starcom MediaVest placed $10.85 billion.

While it's unclear what kind of organic billings growth the two media giants have experienced in 2003, MindShare's new business streak appears to be placing it within striking distance of Starcom MediaVest's market dominance.

After MindShare, Omnicom's PHD unit and Publicis' Zenith Optimedia group, rank as the next best net new business winners, with more than $200 million in incremental billings through the first half of 2003.

The gains of these media shops are especially significant, given the relatively low rate of media account turnover in 2003. Through the first seven months of 2003, $3.783 billion in media planning and buying accounts have changed agencies. That's 32% less media billings churn than occurred during the first seven months of 2002, according to the MAP Barometer, which is published monthly by MediaAnalysisPlus.

Interestingly, the data shows that there appears to be no explicit seasonality to media account shifts.

"What drives agency changes isn't seasonal trends, but the sales cycle," explains Jim Surmanek, CEO of MAP. "If sales are up smiles all around. And if sales are down, blame the others."

Surmanek says it is too early to tell whether the lower rate of media account volatility reflects a more stable economy, or if the second half of 2003 could spur an even greater shift than in 2002.

He says it's also unclear what kind of impact these billings shifts are having on the media marketplace. While some of the account shifts reflect changes in underlying media strategies among the marketers shifting agencies, a greater factor is simply consolidation.

"And a lot of these consolidations are done for reasons other than strategy. They're done to save a nickel on the business or to streamline communications between the client and their agencies," explains Surmanek.

That being said, Surmanek says the media need to be mindful of the strategic thinking of agencies picking up new assignments, because it could represent potential shifts in their media mix.

Overall, he said the impact tends to be a wash for the general marketplace.

"When there's a lot of turnover there are greater degrees of shifting strategies, but not everybody shifts in the same direction. Therefore the media sellers don't suffer overall," he notes.

                      2003        2002   Change
# of Accounts           81          96     -16% 
Media
Billings      $3.783      $5.538     -32% 
                   Billion     Billion