• by David Goetzl , April 1, 2013

No matter how many court victories it racks up, it’s going to be hard to take Aereo seriously as a promising consumer product until it releases the number of subscribers it has. Based on what happened in a recent court appearance, that’s a long time away.

In a hearing last month, it was comical to watch the extent to which the company went to avoid making that public. After the judge asked for the subscriber figure – even a range – the Aereo legal team did some scrambling, but did not produce an answer.

The hearing was in advance of a presumed trial versus broadcasters, which want to shut it down fearing it will steal ad dollars and carriage fees. Meanwhile, Aereo has won two big rulings, including one Monday from a federal appeals court, allowing it to keep going.

But Aereo, which streams live TV to digital devices with DVR functionality, faces considerable headwinds in gaining subscribers. Local stations are moving forward with plans to stream live TV in a similar fashion. There may not be the DVR opportunity, but the broadcasters could undercut it on price (maybe offer it free), while benefiting from a significant marketing platform with their airwaves.

Aereo might have appeal to cord cutters. But if cable operators succeed in making TV Everywhere very attractive, that could stem subscriber defections. Meanwhile, more and more sports events – where Aereo could satisfy a quest for live viewing on the go -- are being made available online for free just as smartphones and tablets proliferate.

So, as Netflix has learned, Aereo might have to turn to exclusive or barely available content to gain customers. One comes to mind: TheBlaze.

Oh, how it might make Aereo champion Barry Diller, an Obama supporter, cringe. But the Glenn Beck online network is now looking for traditional cable and satellite operators to offer it and hasn’t had much luck.

Dish Network gave it a well-publicized platform last year, but since then it’s only landed deals with four other operators, none of them major players. TheBlaze, overseen by the conservative and controversial Beck, carries his radio show and a kids’ program among other content.  

Say this for Beck: his audience is devoted. The New York Times reported last year TheBlaze had 300,000 subscribers paying for it.

TheBlaze has released a statement from Dish executive Dave Shull, saying “subscriptions attributable to TheBlaze outpaced our projections by 80%.”

TheBlaze costs $9.95 a month or $99.95 a year. Aereo is $12 a month and $80 a year.

If Aereo could cut a favorable deal to offer TheBlaze (perhaps with a revenue share), it might be able to appeal to Beck supporters with a message like: “Get Beck, it pays – watch him and so much more for just a few extra bucks.”

Aereo plans to expand to more than 20 cities this year. Many are in red states such as Birmingham, Salt Lake City and Houston, where Beck’s appeal might be significant.

Problem is, Aereo is trying to build a hip brand that appeals to urban trend-setters. Those are the types who might never give it a shot if they saw Beck on the line-up. Still, Beck fashions himself as a renegade and so does Aereo. TV, like politics, has been known to make strange bedfellows.