Commentary

Will 'Arrested Development' Put Netflix Smack In Remake Business?

If it hasn’t happened already thanks to “Arrested Development,” Netflix can probably get ready for a flood of emails from people begging it to remake their favorite TV shows. The deluge likely won’t come from fans of “ER” or other shows that ran their course, but from those feeling their favorites were brilliant and cancelled prematurely.

Will Netflix bite? Certainly, the economics on its end would appear to be compelling. The rights to shows without lucrative syndication deals would seem to come cheaply. 

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Also, there’s a certain baseline popularity that broadcast networks need to keep a show going. A show like NBC’s “Smash” might average 3 million viewers, but get the boot. If a particular show convinced a modest subset of that amount to give Netflix a try at $7.99 a month, Netflix might be thrilled.

“Smash,” the NBC drama that promised to offer a behind-the-scenes peek at the inner workings of Broadway, might be exactly the type of show Netflix would consider remaking. The series had a highly rated premiere in 2012, which indicates potential for wide appeal. As ratings subsequently dropped, there were suggestions it had become too soapy. With better execution and perhaps a return to the initial conceit, Netflix would seem to have an opportunity to offer more “Smash” and attract subscribers.

Regardless, "Smash" still seems to have finished with a passionate fan base wanting more. Which is what happened with “Arrested Development” when it was cancelled after three seasons.  

Clearly, that prompted Netflix to consider bringing it back seven years after its last episode on Fox. This spring, 15 episodes were released on Netflix at once.

“Arrested Development’s” consumption levels would seem to have an influence on how interested Netflix is in getting into the remake business. So, how is it doing? Can “Smash” fans or their brethren feeling network executives cheated them with other shows have hope?

In May, just after "Arrested Development's" launch, Netflix content chief Ted Sarandos said: “We had extremely high expectations for viewing … and it met our expectations, and we’re thrilled.”

New data from Cowen & Co. analyst John Blackledge offers some particular insight. His team conducted a survey in early June and found “Arrested Development” had higher consumption than “House of Cards,” a previous Netflix original where the company expressed satisfaction.

Of the 1,000 consumers in the survey, 29% were Netflix streaming subscribers; an additional 13% had access to the service; and 58% were not subscribers. So, 420 could watch “Arrested Development.”

Of those, nearly a third – some 27% -- viewed the new episodes within their first 10 days on the service. That compares to about 10% for “House of Cards.” (Netflix has close to 30 million domestic streaming customers.)

Also, 28% of those who viewed “Arrested Development” watched all 13 episodes; the average was 7.4.

Survey questions delved into how the show might impact subscriber defections and Cowen & Co. concluded: “If future original programs are as successful as ‘Arrested Development,’ it could lead to a stickier subscriber base over time.”

Data on how many people became new subscribers simply to watch more “Arrested Development” seems unavailable. That might offer better clues how Netflix will respond to all those pleas to give favorite shows another life.

2 comments about "Will 'Arrested Development' Put Netflix Smack In Remake Business?".
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  1. Doug Garnett from Protonik, LLC, July 2, 2013 at 6:36 p.m.

    Just pondering here... But it seems concerning for Netflix that the large number who watched all episodes (and the 7.4 implying that within a week, the bulk of the viewing was over)... They spent a lot of money making this happen. This stats don't suggest there's enough economic benefit to Netflix to make original programming a staple and that makes it a strategic mistake. But the world is complex and surprising. So we'll have to see...

  2. Wendy Valdez from None, July 12, 2013 at 3:05 p.m.

    This IS, as you say, a fantastic opportunity for Netflix to take advantage of the networks' mistakes. SMASH is a perfect example. Thousands of people (like myself) on Facebook are trying any way we can to bring this show back. It just makes sense to use this chance for more subscribers!

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