• by January 9, 2001

With all this dot-com gloom, it's interesting to see that most "analysts" are still optimistic about the growth of online ad spending. All except one, actually.

As we reported in MediaDailyNews this morning, one of the gurus, Merrill Lynch Internet analyst Henry Blodget yesterday said he expects virtually no growth in overall online ad spending this year. Blodget said the totals of 2001 will amount to the same $8 billion as 2000, because of "continued cutbacks by dot-coms and a weaker overall advertising environment."

"Our new estimate for 2001 is $8 billion, flat year-over- year, down from $9 billion, or 15% growth (six months ago, we expected 30% - 40% growth). We continue to expect market growth of about 30% in 2002," he wrote.

Curiously, Blodget was quick to point out that his estimates are far lower than others, adding that while he believes most estimates are far too aggressive, he is encouraged by the optimism.

Well, just how aggressive are those estimates and do they even matter?

The closest to Blodget is J.P. Morgan, which expects 9% growth to $8.8 billion - but that is still down from its previous projection of $10.9 billion, which would have represented a 28% increase.

Yet, in December, Universal McCann predicted that U.S. Internet spending would grow 65% in 2000 and 60% in 2001, and Zenith estimated that world-wide Internet advertising will increase 43% in 2000 and 40% in 2001.

Also, the Myers Group upped its 2001 outlook in late 2000 to 70% growth from a previous forecast of 50% growth.

And Forrester says that in two years, online ad spending will hit $13 billion.

You decide.