• by Steve Smith , Staff Writer @popeyesm, October 2, 2013

As the share of e-commerce transactions from mobile devices continues to rise, analysts are recalibrating their hopes for the holiday season. In a new roundup report of research on the retail segment, eMarketer says it has revised upward its m-commerce forecast, now saying that 16% of online purchases will be made from devices this year -- up from 15% in the last projection. It now says retail sales on mobile will hit $41.68 billion this year and will be on track to crack $100 billion in 2017.

The revision comes off of increased investment in device-based systems by major retailers like Best Buy and Home Depot. eMarketer is seeing m-commerce increase 68.3% this year, with projected growth rates coming down to 36.1% next year but remaining in the 20% to 30% range of growth through 2016. By 2017 the researcher expects 26% of online sales to be going through devices.

In terms of revenue in the U.S. tablets rule -- responsible for 62.5% of sales this year. The share of revenue coming from the larger of the small screens is up from 56.2% last year. These analysts see tablets continuing their dominance through 2017 when smartphone share of mobile buying will shrink to 27%. 

My guess is that as retailers themselves streamline their e-commerce experiences across screens the distinctions will fade among consumers. Companies like eBay and Amazon took early leads in m-commerce precisely because shoppers like myself had confidence in both the company and the familiar process we encountered on handsets and tablets. As the focus moves to shared and seamless experiences regardless of screen, the consumer will care less and less about where she taps that button. 

"Woman with Santa Hat and Smartphone" photo from Shutterstock.