Commentary

TV's Lifespan: Less Than Two Decades Left?

by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, November 26, 2014

We’re talking about the death of someone near and dear to us: TV. It’s gotta end sometime, according to one prominent executive.

Reed Hastings, chief executive officer of Netflix -- a prominent TV disrupter -- believes TV’s demise is only 16 years away. Make that 2030.

We don’t know if Hastings was really serious. But with all the digital disruption over the last decade and a half, many folks must have had similar thoughts about traditional TV’s death.

If the process of choosing a TV show to watch --- not based on a network, not based on linear viewing schedule -- continues to evolve, then yes, one could assume the traditional ways of watching TV could be ending.

You might wonder about “live” TV programming: big sports contests and other major real-time video content, perhaps music and theater.

Well, that’s not going away. Maybe the new TV model will be to funnel that to a live channel, with subchannel segments.

Hastings wasn’t exactly specific about what would happen next -- like where “traditional” discovery of TV shows would land. Sixteen years from now, would that be coming from social media, our predictive viewing history, key friends and family recommendations?

We’d all like to know where this thing is going -- thus traditional media players have completed a wide-ranging set of deals, working to have their toes in the water of many new digital places at the same time.

What about measurement? We’re counting on media research companies, including Nielsen, to keep to their goals about “total audience” -- hopefully much sooner than 2030.

3 comments about "TV's Lifespan: Less Than Two Decades Left?".

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kirk gaw from oneone77 agency, November 26, 2014 at 1:37 p.m.
Bullshit! TV has been a part of God's plan the whole time! In fact God uses television to get us started with our mind! Who knew TV has been in our life since the beginning! Don't count on TV and the networks leaving anytime soon! Wow! This whole subject feels strange and dumb...to think of our World w/o TV!
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John Grono from GAP Research, November 26, 2014 at 3:54 p.m.

Wow, he's giving it around twice as long as cinema was given when TV came along. Just as accurate a forecast methinks,

Nicholas Schiavone from Nicholas P. Schiavone, LLC, November 26, 2014 at 4:09 p.m.

Dear Wayne, Reed. MediaPost & Netflix,
Stop the Madness! Avoid the Darkness!! And Enjoy A Happy Thanksgiving --------------------------------------------------------------------With your Television Sets, (Cable, Satellite & Telco) Television Boxes, Television Manufacturers, Television Engineers, Streaming Television Services - like Netflix, Television DVR's, Television Networks, Television Stations, Television Sponsors, Television Advertisers, Television Programmers, Television Producers, Television Production Teams, Television Programs, Television News Persons, Television Weather Persons, Television Actors, Television Writers, Television Musicians. Television Promoters, Television Researchers, Television Announcers, Television Critics, All TV-Enabled Devices (e.g., Computers, Mobile Devices, etc), and the rest of the U. S. Television Audience of 319,151,000 Persons !!!
Gratefully,
Nick (Nicholas P. Schiavone
PS Apologies to all those I innocently forget.