The next five to 10 years are a transition period for television, and what lies at the end of this transition is pretty amazing for advertisers. Consider this period the “middleware”
stage for TV.
There are two clear components that define this transition period. First, it’s about the hardware designed to bridge the traditional TV environment to the digital,
connected TV environment. These pieces of hardware are everywhere: the Apple TV, Google Chromecast, Roku, TiVos. All these devices connect the traditional TV screen with the Internet
and digitally enabled services. TV manufacturers such as Vizio, Samsung and Sony are also trying to integrate apps into the TV itself, but these are clunky at best, impossible at worst.
The environments are clearly separate -- there is no integration into a true TV experience, like that of dual-screen viewing with a mobile device and the TV. That experience, though managed by
two separate devices, is far better than these so-called “integrated” apps.
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The success of the transition on this side of the fence depends squarely on the operating system
and guide interface yet to be offered. In my eyes, Apple and Google are the two most likely companies to solve this challenge, having successfully navigated the OS from the desktop to the
phone. I realize I am lumping in software with this hardware component, but I see these two components woven together and you cannot achieve success in one without the other. It’s a
package deal.
The second component of this transition is the additional software element that ties in programmatic delivery and data-driven audience addressability. The
programmatic online environment is a bridge to that of TV, and the tipping point comes when data is integrated beyond aggregate audiences, and the goal of addressability is realized. This depends on
the device’s ability to recognize the viewer, either at a composite household level, a log-in level, or a statistical ID, cookie-like level dependent on a short-term behavioral profile developed
in a 10- to 15-minute window.
Once the device can accurately profile different viewers in the household at viewing time, then data can be leveraged to deliver customized programming and
advertisements. This translates to increased premiums for inventory and more effective messaging. This whole new layer to television advertising also allows integrated monetization across
devices such as mobile, etc. The ability to deliver a custom audience across all three primary screens is an (oft-stated) Holy Grail for advertisers -- one that is well within our reach in the
next five years.
Both components of this transition are in development, but I estimate a conservative 10-year window for them to become a reality. There is an industry crying out for these
tools, and a multibillion-dollar opportunity waiting for those who help this transition along.
What do you think? Is 10 years too long an estimate? Will everything come
together much sooner?