In the online ad industry, few would argue that 2002 is starting off on a sour note. We’ve all read and smirked at every prediction that points to a recovery in the next six to nine months—the
research world seems unable to work with any time frame except six months.
Obviously, researchers’ crystal balls are no better than the Magic 8 Ball buried under heaps of paper on my desk, but I
want to offer a prediction anyway: Just wait. This year will be better. It has to be.
In online advertising, it’s obvious that the high goals the industry set for itself 12 months ago fell short
of being reached. We were all hoping that by now we’d be able to say that we’ve succeeded in establishing reasonable standards for just about every aspect of advertising online, and have convinced
traditional advertisers to use the medium more.
Didn’t quite get there, did we? And that’s why this year’s list of goals looks hauntingly similar to last year’s: establish standards, target
better, measure ROI, continue working to prove the medium’s worth.
That’s not to say we’ve made no progress at all. The IAB has done a great job ironing out some of the smaller kinks that slow us
down every day, and more-traditional advertisers—especially big-name brands—are coming onboard slowly but surely (as I write this, Toyota Motor Corp. is mulling over the idea of using the Internet as
a cornerstone of a launch effort behind its new vehicle line).
I think 2002 will be the year we stop arguing about whether the Internet is a branding or a direct response vehicle and come to
terms with the fact that it’s both. The same goes for the CPM vs. CPA debate: There’s plenty of room on the World Wide Web for them to peacefully coexist. As for the impression—it will stay around
until we find a better and simpler way to buy online ads.
And all of that is going to happen because online ad budgets will continue to grow year after year, even in the face of total advertising
and marketing budget cutbacks.
And that is due to the fact that more and more people (a.k.a. consumers, target audiences, ad viewers) are coming online every day. October had the biggest increase
in people coming online for 2001. 2001 by itself has seen the aggregate Internet population rise 15 percent, or to over 115 million people—the largest number ever.
And although there are reports
of churn in the Broadband sector, the aggregate number keeps going up, reaching an all-time high of 21 million people last month. And most of that increase comes from home users. In fact, over 60
percent of U.S. homes are currently online.
Will it be a difficult year for the industry? Certainly. Just remember that as long as there are online audiences, there will be online advertisers.
Masha Geller is Editor-in-Chief of MediaPost. She may be reached at masha@mediapost.com.