Commentary

Half of Viewers Under 32 Won't Pay for TV In 10 Years

by Jack Loechner , Staff Writer, October 19, 2015

According to the Forrester Research report, Young TV Cord-Nevers Have Arrived And Are Here To Stay, 50% of all TV viewers under age 32 will not subscribe to a traditional pay TV service by 2025. Given that bleak-looking future, based on a survey of more than 55,000 U.S. adults, says the report, Forrester analyst James McQuivey suggests that providers must try new ways to connect with cord-cutter and cord-nevers and develop game plans on how to serve them.

McQuivey noted in the report that “… today’s 20-somethings are already hard to reach via TV, and the next generation will be tougher… “

Cable Subscription Status by Age (% of User Category)
	*User Category*
advertisement advertisement *Age*	*Cord-Cutters*	*Core-Nevers*	*Cord-Havers*
2015
Age 32+	5%	15%	80%
Age 16-31	10	25	65
2025
Age 16-31	15	35	50
Source: Forrester, October 2015

Some MVPDs have been taking heed, says the report:

Comcast is beta-testing Stream, a $15/month IPTV service that features broadcast networks, HBO and a cloud DVR, and recently introduced Watchable, an ad-based OTT service
Cablevision Systems has developed packages tailored for cord-cutters
Verizon recently went wide with go90, its free “mobile first” offering for millennials
Dish Network is targeting cord-cutters and cord-nevers with Sling TV
CBS, HBO and Showtime have also launched standalone OTT offerings

Cord-cutters are “secondary” to the bigger problem of the rising Cord-Nevers, a group that, according to Forrester, now represents 18% of the population, says the report. Cord-cutters represent about 6%, but will stay below a 15% ceiling. 35% of younger viewers fall into the Cord-Nevers or Cord-Cutters bucket.

Of particular concern are “digital Cord-Nevers,” says the report. A group of young consumers that gravitate to services like Netflix and YouTube that have “grown up believing that they can have all of the TV they want without paying a traditional TV distributor for it.” But the bulk of the population, 76%, still gets pay TV, suggesting that there’s still time for traditional players to solve the problem, notes the report.

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cord-cutting, research, tv

3 comments about "Half of Viewers Under 32 Won't Pay for TV In 10 Years".

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Douglas Ferguson from College of Charleston, October 19, 2015 at 9:02 a.m.
Nearly 20 percent of young men in their late 20s and early 30s still live with their cable-subscribing parents, thanks to the recession in 2009 that only ended because the media reported that it did.
Reply

Douglas Ferguson from College of Charleston replied, October 19, 2015 at 9:03 a.m.

Source: https://www.census.gov/hhes/families/files/graphics/AD-1.pdf

John Grono from GAP Research, October 20, 2015 at 1:29 p.m.

Quite the coincidence that all the key findings are in increments of 5% with an n=55,000 sample, given that the margin of error on a simple random sample of n=50,000 should range from +/- 0.2% to +/- 0.4%.