• by Philip Rosenstein , Staff Writer, October 17, 2016

The Hispanic and Latino community was thrust to the center of the 2016 presidential campaign the day Donald Trump announced his candidacy on June 15, 2015. Not that they needed any reminder of the central role they play in American politics.

Obama's win in 2012 is largely thought to be a result of strong Hispanic turnout. 

One cannot overstate the vital role that Hispanic voters will play in deciding our next president. Many swing states, in particular, Florida, have larger Hispanic communities than the average across the country.

Further, FiveThirtyEight gives Florida a 19.4% chance of tipping the election. Univision projects that 18.5% of the Florida electorate will identify as Hispanic.

Donald Trump attempts at times, generally to no avail, to frame his rhetoric about Hispanics or “Mexicans” as a discussion about immigration and jobs, while dismissing any racial or xenophobic tinge to his policies.

The problem for Trump: There is not much he can do now to woo any Hispanics back to his corner.

“People appreciate when people speak to them and not so much when you talk about them,” Lourdes Torres, senior vice president of political coverage and special projects at Univision, told Red, White & Blog.

“Mexicans are fiercely nationalistic. Mexican Americans are proud of where they came from,” added Torres. “They don’t really feel like there’s a true border, there is such a strong cross-cultural sentiment -- and talk of the wall is an especially vicious attack on many Hispanics’ cultural ties with Mexico.”

Hispanic turnout in states like Florida, Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada will be particularly important to the outcome of the race. According to Univision’s forecast of Hispanic voters in swing states, Hillary Clinton will rout Trump with over 70% of the vote in all five except Florida, where she is projected to win the demographic with about 65% of the vote.

Turnout in Florida among Hispanics will be especially crucial, as described by Univision’s interactive forecast. In order for Clinton to win the state, over 26.3% of eligible Hispanic voters will have to vote to grant her the state’s 29 electoral votes. Below that threshold, Trump would be 29 electoral votes closer to the White House.

“Trump will himself be motivation for a lot of people to come out and vote,” said Torres. “The big question is whether there is a large portion of those polled who are not registered to vote.”