• by Philip Rosenstein , Staff Writer, November 2, 2016

There is a strong indication that person-to-person contact increases the likelihood a voter heads to the polls on November 8. Accordingly, many have been bombarded by requests to join a phone bank or bus to a nearby swing state and go canvassing door to door.

With the election tightening in the last week, in particular in the swing states of Florida, North Carolina and Nevada, which are basically toss-ups, turnout will make the crucial difference.

Certain trends favor Clinton, while others appear to give Trump a better shot at an unlikely win.

“Voters with less than a college education are less likely to vote than college-educated voters,” stated Michael Jones-Correa, professor of political science at the University of Pennsylvania, part of a WalletHub study on the most and least politically engaged states in 2016.

Hillary Clinton benefits from this trend, as she does significantly better than Donald Trump with the educated portion of the electorate.

Conversely, “older voters are more likely to vote” than younger voters, a benefit to Trump, who holds a strong lead among the elderly. Final results in a state like Florida will depend on a combination of turnout among older voters, who are likely to lean Trump, and minority voters who favor Clinton.

Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota have elderly populations among the most engaged in the country, according to the WalletHub study. If turnout expectations are exceeded, they could put a dent in Hillary Clinton’s firewall -- states she needs to win to block Trump from reaching 270 electoral votes.

The WalletHub study notes that Blue states are significantly more politically engaged than Red states. But in the end, the balance of the race will depend on those crucial swing states.

We’ve seen certain signs that Clinton may be facing turnout issues among minorities in North Carolina, given various voter suppression efforts, and Florida, though a new Target Smart survey shows 28% of early Republicans voted for her, per MSNBC. 

In Nevada, Democrats are out-voting Republicans by a significant margin.

The other influential theme this cycle is what effect negativity will have on turnout.

In theory, two candidates as disliked as Clinton and Trump would depress turnout, “indications are this will not be a particularly high turnout election year,” explained professor Jones-Correa. Conversely, aversion to either candidate could bolster turnout among certain groups.

The Clinton campaign has been more effective with on the ground operations — which might just make the difference on Election Day.