• by Sean Hargrave , Staff Writer, November 4, 2016

Don't get too excited because it could well come to nothing, but -- and it's a pretty massive but -- the decision that still has the marketing and advertising industries scratching their heads has just the tiniest new hope of being overturned.

It took just one plucky woman from London, and a team of well-paid lawyers, to prove a point that was pretty obvious to the average person in the street. Although the government was hoping to just plough on ahead and invoke Article 50, which will signal the UK's intent to leave the EU, a judge has ruled that an act of Parliament is needed. Hardly sounds like the most crazy idea, does it? Parliament being required to approve such a massive move as leaving the EU? It's how you would imagine things should always be. 

For the media industry and the capital (plus the surrounding areas of South England), this is a massive opportunity for our MPs to speak up for a massive swath of the country that voted to Remain. Its the same in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Remember, Brexit was voted for across the centre and north of England, particularly in areas of high immigration where manufacturing is on the wane. The bottom and top of the UK voted very much in favour to Remain.

London is, of course, the capital of the country's biggest surplus industry. The creative and advertising markets are constantly in the black with the rest of the EU, and so leaving the union is a massive deal. Other EU capitals are more than willing to take on the role of media capital and tariffs on British work would be just what they need to forge ahead.

So what will happen? Well, in about a month the government will appeal and argue the very odd case that Parliament doesn't need to be involved in leaving the EU -- the decision has been made by the electorate and that is the end of the story. To highlight how ridiculous the argument is, you could point out that whoever wins an election still has to pass laws. Their manifesto does not automatically become enshrined in the statute book because of a public vote.

If the government wins its appeal, the current muddle will carry on. If they lose, expect a lot of debate and counter debate followed by a general election in the first quarter of 2017. Now for the really interesting part. A Tory government's heartland is always central and southern England. That's right -- the very part of the country that bucked the rest of England and voted to stay in the EU, totally against the government's current position. As far as the north, Wales and Northern Ireland go, the Tories don't stand to lose a single seat (OK -- maybe just the one Scottish Tory MP, but you get the picture). You will effectively have a part of the country that always votes Tory facing the quandary of their usual voting pattern running counter to their views on Europe. But of course, they won't be able to vote Labour, so expect to see plenty of independent Conservatives flying the Remain flag and watch out for some surprise Liberal Democrat victories.

What is the end result from all this, whether we have an election or not? I suspect it won't impact the decision to leave the EU -- no MP wants to stand against the will of the people -- but it may well spell an end to hard Brexit. Rather than cut all ties with the EU, MPs will ensure that the government seeks a more conciliatory approach, perhaps through a Norwegian-style free trade deal that keeps the UK within a common customs border and with free movement still honoured. It's exactly the situation that I -- and anyone with half a brain -- have been warning about for months. Leaving the EU will simply see the country pay more to remain within a free trade area with all the obligations we used to have. We'll have flicked our nose at Brussels before cutting it off to spite our face.

Maybe there is a little hope in yesterday's decision, but I doubt it. Parliament will likely be involved, and a compromise that suits neither side will result. The government will not be able to play its ace card of threatening Europe with a hard Brexit and will instead be forced to negotiate with its wings clipped. I truly hope a second referendum comes out of all of this, but I really don't expect it to.