• by Jack Loechner , Staff Writer @mp_research, February 27, 2017

According to the The National Retail Federation forecast for 2017, by Treacy Reynolds, NRF press, retail industry sales will grow between 3.7 and 4.2% over 2016, excluding automobiles, gasoline stations and restaurants, Online and other non-store/online sales, which are included in the overall number, are expected to increase between 8 and 12%.

NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said “… the economy is on firm ground as we head into 2017… expected to build on (last year’s)momentum… with jobs and income growing and debt relatively low, the fundamentals are in place…. But consumers will remain hesitant to spend… (without) more certainty about policy changes on taxes, trade and other issues being debated in Congress… “

NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz points out that “… prospects for consumer spending are straightforward… more jobs and more income will result in more spending… the pace of wage growth and job creation dictate spending… forecast represents a baseline for the year… fiscal policy changes could impact consumers and the economy… unlikely that businesses will notably increase investment until tax reform and trade policies are well-defined…

… online sales will continue to expand in 2017 and provide growth for the retail industry,” Kleinhenz continued, “… important to realize that virtually (every) major retailer sells online… (and) retailers sell to consumers however they want to buy… in-store, online or mobile.” 

Additional Economic Insights Continuing From The Report

• The economy is expected to gain an average of approximately 160,000 jobs a month. The number is down slightly from 2016 but consistent with labor market growth
• Unemployment is expected to drop to 4.6% by the end of the year
• Economic growth is likely to be in the range of 1.9 to 2.4%
• The forecast is a baseline, and does not take into account new fiscal measures pending in Washington

Retail is the nation’s largest private sector employer, supporting one in four U.S. jobs – 42 million working Americans. Contributing $2.6 trillion to annual GDP, retail is a daily barometer for the nation’s economy, notes the NRF.

The Original NRF release may be found here.