• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, July 14, 2017

Think the linear TV advertising market could rise 50% -- in a few years? How about 100%? 

Given the state of digital media, all this seems to be a counter-initiative.

But one media analyst says advanced TV advertising could be a $100 billion business. This would be higher than the current $50 billion to $70 billion total TV market. For many estimates, that includes national broadcast and cable networks, local TV (broadcast and cable), syndication, and other platforms.

Credit Suisse media analyst Omar Sheikh points to four reasons: More targeted advertising opportunities for TV network sellers and buyers; TV networks groups doing a better job selling all their vertically integrated networks; new efforts with third-party measurers; and Open AP, the new TV network consortium looking to standardize new audience segments.

Sheikh said to MediaVillage.com: "We think TV ad growth can accelerate from the 2% per annum we have seen over the last three years to 5% to 7% between now and 2030.” He doesn’t believe the prevailing wisdom: The growth of digital media will come at the expense of traditional TV.

We don’t know all the specifics. Is this single-digit percentage growth in addition to new advanced TV advertising gains? Perhaps there is some overlap in digital media, since the TV networks do represent a healthy part of digital media’s growth, given the fast-moving premium video segment.

No matter. Any of the sharply higher gains from new advertising efforts would be music to the ears of big TV media networks.

Here’s the big eye-opener: Sheikh sees annual growth rate at 12% to 48% for advanced advertising -- all this from listening to expectations of highly motivated ad tech/third-party companies, such as Simulmedia, Clypd and Matter More Media.

For a long time, we have heard euphoric descriptions about the new TV advertising world -- call it advanced, addressable, targeted, or otherwise. If fully realized, all this could easily place higher value on traditional TV programming content.

Highlighting a $100 billion number puts a shining picture out there -- especially in light of the current uncertainty of the market.

Facing all this, legacy advertising systems are still slow-moving.

Remember in the mid-to-late '90s when many advertising/TV trade magazines were writing about the end of the upfront TV advertising markets?  

In the past few weeks, virtually all TV networks have said revenues are up for the current upfront ad selling period -- rejecting media estimates

So 20+ years later, where are we now?