Steeper Declines In TV Ads Expected For 2017

by Wayne Friedman , August 24, 2017

Total TV advertising is now set to decline by 5% in 2017, according to one analyst, who has lowered his estimates.

Michael Nathanson, senior media analyst at MoffettNathanson Research, lowered his annual projection for TV, now factoring in second-quarter TV results, which sank 3.2%.

TV stations lost 7% in advertising during the period ($2.3 billion), while cable networks were off 2.4% ($5.9 billion), local cable advertising lost $865 million, and broadcast networks dropped $3.4 billion.

Nathanson estimates the total U.S. advertising market will grow 2.5% for the year, boosted by digital media growth continuing to earn high double-digit percentage improvements -- 18.5% higher -- an estimate that remains unchanged.

TV will not be alone in the losses. Other traditional media will also take a beating: outdoor, radio, newspapers and consumer magazines will collectively sink 7%.

Nathanson says traditional advertising and media agencies will continue to suffer. “They have too much client concentration in sectors like retail, consumer products and automotive that are not growing budgets.” He recommends pursuing business from small- and medium-sized marketers that spend online.

Although U.S. advertising posted an 8% hike in the second quarter, when excluding digital media in that period, there was a 4% decline -- the worst traditional growth rate for a non-Olympics quarter since 2009.

Digital media may be taking budgets away from “in-store promotion, trade support, and direct mail,” he says.

advertising, revenue, tv

2 comments about "Steeper Declines In TV Ads Expected For 2017 ".

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Douglas Ferguson from College of Charleston, August 25, 2017 at 11:01 a.m.
Five years ago the idea that broadcast TV was slowly bleeding-out was very unpopular. I suppose local stations will limp on but never anything close to the heyday.
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Ed Papazian from Media Dynamics Inc, August 25, 2017 at 1:35 p.m.

The decline was anticipated by most broadcasters and others as a natural result of the reduction in political ad spending following the election campaign of 2016. It's not the first time it's happened nor will it be the last. Otherwise, I wouldn't read that much into it until we see what happens across a number of spending cycles. Don't panic, folks---TV aint dead or even dying---- as yet.