• by Steve Sternberg , Featured Columnist, October 31, 2017

A month into the new TV season, here are a few tidbits to think about:

There has been some press about how AMC’s “The Walking Dead’s” premiere ratings were significantly lower than last season’s debut.  That’s because last season was the most highly anticipated ever, as fans knew a major character would be brutally killed in the first episode. Typically up to half its audience is on a delayed basis, and it’s still the highest-rated show on television.

Before the season began, I cited ABC’s “The Good Doctor” as one of the best medical drama pilots I had ever seen.  The show is holding up, ranking third among total viewers (edging out NBC’s hit, “This is Us”), and is in the top 10 among adults 18-49.

While two new military dramas, CBS’s “Seal Team” and NBC’s “The Brave” both rank among the top 40 shows in prime time, CW’s similarly themed and just as good “Valor” ranks outside the top 100.  Most people would say that’s primarily because CW simply isn’t as popular with a broad audience as the other networks, and “Valor” is not compatible with CW’s other programming.  Both are true.  

But one big reason for “Valor’”s poor showing is the ridiculous unwritten rule that one broadcast network cannot promote its entertainment programming on another broadcast network – even though accepting advertising from their real competitors, namely ad-supported and premium cable, as well as streaming services (such as Netflix and Hulu) is perfectly fine.  

“Valor,” in fact, is actually produced by CBS Television Studios.  So not cross-promoting it with “Seal Team” and similar-skewing and more-established CBS series, is particularly dumbfounding.  

Binge-viewing is not just a Netflix, Amazon, or Hulu phenomenon. It impacts linear ad-supported TV as well.  I currently have seven series queued up on my DVR.  Five of them have been there more than three days, and three of them have multiple episodes.  A significant amount of my viewing will not be picked up by Nielsen’s C3 or C7 ratings.  Is it possible that network viewership is not actually declining as much as we think, but simply shifting beyond our current currency measurement?  Or am I just an anomaly?

Did Pre-Season Buzz Matter?
Through the first month of the season, new shows (not counting spinoffs or reboots) to crack the top 40 ratings among total viewers were ABC’s “The Good Doctor” (#3), CBS’s “Seal Team” (#13), “Wisdom of the Crowd” (#25), and “9JKL” (#28), and NBC’s “The Brave” (#33).  None received a significant amount of pre-season buzz.  

Among adults 18-49, “The Good Doctor” (#5), “Seal Team” (#29), and “The Brave” (#36), made the top 40, and were joined by FOX’s “The Gifted” (#13) and “The Orville” (#37).  Only the latter two generated any buzz prior to their season premieres.

That said, there did seem to be less buzz overall for this season’s crop of new shows than for those of the past few seasons.  This could be because there are now so many original scripted series in the summer (mostly on cable), that viewers don’t focus on the new fall TV season as early as they used to.

Original Content (and Netflix) Still Rules
The heavily buzzed season 2 debut of “Stranger Things” once again shows that original content rules, and why Netflix remains unchallenged by its competitors.  

The expected 2018 debut of “The Punisher” and season 2 of “Jessica Jones” could be just as big, if not bigger.  While Hulu does have the Emmy-winning “A Handmaid’s Tale,” it focuses more on reruns from the libraries of its major owners, Disney (ABC), Twenty First Century Fox (FOX), and Comcast (NBC).  

While nice to have, off-network repeats do not significantly drive subscribers the way original scripted series do.  Netflix will reportedly spend a remarkable $8 billion for content next season, with a reported goal of increasing its annual original content from the current 25% to 50% by 2020.