• by Sarah Mahoney  @mahoney_sarah, October 3, 2019

The National Retail Federation is forecasting a ho-ho-healthy holiday season, calling for between a 3.8% and 4.2% gain. NRF says its predictions are based on continued strength in the economy, low unemployment and steady consumer confidence, and are likely to translate into between $727 billion to $730 billion in sales.

While there are plenty of uncertainties, especially in terms of tariff issues, “we still see plenty of momentum,” says Matthew Shay, NRF’s president, in a conference call. “This is very positive, and well above [the] abnormally low growth of last year, which was in the 2% range.” That was due to factors like the looming government shutdown, rising interest rates and the early hints of a trade war.

If it materializes, the 2019 forecast will beat the five-year average growth rate of 3.7%.

The Washington D.C.-based trade association says it expects online and other non-store sales to climb between 11% and 14%, or between $162.6 billion and $166.9 billion. That’s about 20% of the total. “Throughout the year, that’s usually closer to 10%,” Shay says.

Shay told reporters on the call that the organization is currently in talks with retailers to decide if it even makes sense to break out non-store numbers any longer. A more contemporary view, he says, is that “retailers just look at this as part of their holistic way to reach the consumer. Consumer engagement is the key metric, and the world is just becoming increasingly agnostic.”

The NRF defines the holiday period as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31.

While NRF’s predictions typically get the most attention, it’s not the only forecaster. Earlier this month, consultancy Deloitte called for an even stronger gain, in part because of last year’s softness. It expects sales to climb between 4.5% and 5% this year.

Coresight Research, the retail consultancy led by industry expert Deborah Weinswig, also expects sales to climb in the 4% range, with greater growth in ecommerce. It says it expects 23% of all nonfood retail sales to take place online this holiday season.

And earlier this week, Accenture released its predictions, in the form of per-person spending, anticipating much smaller gains, with spending rising to an average of $637 per person. About 57% in its 1,500-person samples say they intend to spend about the same amount on the holiday this year, while 28% say they anticipate shelling out more.

A spokesperson tells Marketing Daily that despite the positive sentiment expressed in that total of 85%, “we did see a level of caution, with 15% percent versus 11% last year saying they would spend less.” The top factors? Rising food bills and not wanting to increase credit card debt.

Accenture respondents also expressed a growing disenchantment with shopping on Thanksgiving and Black Friday. About 58% say they’re less inclined to shop on Thanksgiving Day, up from 51% last year. And 55% say the same about Black Friday, up from 50% in 2018.