Being in the predicting business is always a risky proposition, which is why the odds makers in Las Vegas make such good livings.
But I’m more than 50% confident that "Once Upon A Time… in Hollywood" will take home the Best Picture Award at the Oscars tonight. So the odds are in my favor.
Most of the Academy members, I’m pretty sure, are boomers. So at least they’ll get what the movie is about, unlike a number of millennials and Gen Xers, who weren’t around yet when the events in the movie take place and didn’t really get what the picture was about. At least some of the ones I talked to.
But don’t ask me how I came to decide how "Once Upon A Time in Hollywood" will take home Best Picture honors. The call is based on a proprietary formula. There may or may not be an algorithm involved.
All I can tell you is that I correctly called "Green Book" would win last year, basically using the same formula.
The folks at WPP content shop SJR have another methodology for choosing Best Pic and have come to a different conclusion. They call: "1917."
For clients, SJR developed a Strategic Storytelling Index as a means of quantifying how strong their content is and predicting how well it will resonate.
Just for fun, SJR has been applying the technique to calling Best Film for a couple of years now, correctly predicting "The Shape of Water" (2018) and "Green Book" (2019) victories.
This year, SJR surveyed 363 adults to score each Best Picture trailer, evaluating the films for various criteria, including how inspirational, educational and satisfying.
"Once Upon A Time in Hollywood" placed way down on the list, which frankly I find shocking, but so be it.
We’ll find out soon enough.