• by Steve Ellwanger , January 5, 2023

The impact of avian influenza will likely continue to deliver shell shock to consumers in the form of high egg prices throughout 2023.

During leading U.S. egg producer Cal-Maine Foods’ second fiscal quarter, the average selling price of conventional eggs more than doubled from a year ago, while specialty egg prices  rose 24.9%.

The price of eggs going forward will correlate in part with the speed at which the number of layer hens lost to the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) can be replenished.

In releasing Q2 financial results last week, Cal-Maine cited USDA statistics indicating that as of Dec. 27, approximately 43.3 million commercial layer hens “have been depopulated due to HPAI this year.”

Prior to the outbreak of HPAI in February of 2022, the average five-year layer flock was about 328 million hens.

But the layer hen inventory “is not projected to exceed the 328 million mark again until December of 2023,” Cal-Maine noted in its earnings release.

At a recent investment conference, Cal-Maine CEO Sherman Miller tied the HPAI outbreak to wild bird migration.

“Wild birds from Europe and Asia end up nesting in the same areas as water fowl that will migrate through north America and they bring the virus with them,” said Miller.

Thus far, no Cal-Maine facilities have tested positive for HPAI.

In the 13 weeks ended Nov. 28, the average net selling price of conventional eggs increased to $2.90 compared to $1.20 a year earlier.

The price of specialty eggs—a category that includes cage-free, organic and pasture-raised—reached $2.40 from $1.90.

As a result, Cal-Maine posted record quarterly net sales of $801.7 million—up 110% from the year-earlier period.

Last July, United Egg Producers said that 30% of egg production consisted of specialty eggs while the U.S. Department of Agriculture predicted that figure would rise to 66% by 2026.

According to Cal-Maine, some of its retail customers had announced goals to offer cage-free eggs exclusively “on or before 2026, though some of these customers have extended those timelines to the end of 2030."