• by Joe Mandese  @mp_joemandese, June 12, 2023

GroupM this morning released its midyear revision to its annual advertising forecast, keeping its worldwide projection for 2023 pat and revising its U.S. outlook down on an ex-political basis to 5.1% from the 5.5% it projected in December 2022.

On a total ad spending basis, GroupM revised its U.S. ad growth down to just +1.9%, bringing MediaPost's holding company consensus down to +3.1% for 2023 (see table at bottom).

On a global basis, GroupM also stayed pat on its +4.6% total ad growth prediction for total ad spending (including political), leaving the holding company worldwide consensus unchanged at +4.3% for the year.

"Hopefully, the fact that we maintained our estimate from December is interesting," GroupM Global President of Business Intelligence Kate Scott-Dawkins began her pre-briefing on her revised ad forecast with the press late last week. "It's not that it's no news."

She said the biggest economic factor impacting the ad outlook has been the rise in interest rates in various markets, but she said GroupM is maintaining its view that the economy will "manage a soft landing" from the recent inflationary and recessionary cycles.

"The promise of recession keeps getting pushed back," she said, adding, "No news is hopefully still good news."

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