• by Wayne Friedman , February 7, 2006

"Super Bowl XL" proved to be an extra large version of a regular Super Bowl, as this year's version had its best ratings in over a decade. But a case could be made that it could have been larger: Analysts say--in theory--some advertising money was left on the table, not accounting for new viewers from DVR recording.

ABC's "Super Bowl XL," which had the Pittsburgh Steelers besting the Seattle Seahawks 21-10, earned an average 90.7 million viewers. This was 5 percent higher than last year's game on Fox, which pulled in 86.1 million. The game's adult 18-49 numbers rose more modestly--up 4 percent to a 34.6 rating, higher than last year's 33.2 rating.

This was the first Super Bowl to include DVR usage in its ratings, the so-called live plus same day of DVR recording--but the big numbers weren't dampened by this addition. Actual live ratings were slightly lower, according to one network executive who had access to the data, with key viewer groups showing 1 percent gains in ratings--adult 18-34 and 18-49 viewers, and men 18-34 and 18-49. In terms of household ratings, the numbers moved up only 0.3 percent, to a 45.85 rating from a 45.72 rating.

ESPN/ABC didn't sell the Super Bowl with the inclusion of DVR viewership, nor did it provide advertisers with a ratings guarantee. Networks historically have not provided ratings guarantees in the Super Bowl. Still, this year's performance was significant because of the new ratings methodology, the normally large Super Bowl viewership, and the king-size cost of Super Bowl commercial time.

A 1 percent difference in key demographic ratings from adults or male viewers for this year's Super Bowl, translated to advertising dollars, might have meant an extra $1.5 million on top of the $150 million, ABC grabbed in total advertising money for the game. ESPN/ABC sold around 60 30-second units in the game for an average $2.5 million a spot. That does not include revenues from pre-game, post-game, and ABC local station advertising.

Future networks airing Super Bowls could use this as leverage in charging more money to advertisers, analysts say. Since Super Bowl viewers are keen on watching commercials, the traditional DVR concern of skipping commercials doesn't necessarily apply here. As a matter of fact, it's reversed. One analyst said the primary reason viewers would digitally record the Super Bowl is to review the entertaining new commercials. By that account, a network could perhaps charge more money for the Super Bowl.

Network executives have been exploring a new ratings metric developed by Nielsen, which would allow them to aggregate multiple exposures of time-shifted viewing via DVRs and presumably video-on-demand telecasts. Nielsen calls the new metric a Shifted Average Audience rating, or SAA. To date, no network is known to have bought into the new ratings product, or factored it into its ad sales negotiations, but executives familiar with the plan say NBC has explored it for its Olympic advertising sales effort.

Meanwhile, "Grey's Anatomy," ABC's post-game Super Bowl prime-time show, rode the big Super Bowl wave this year, pulling in a monstrous 38.1 million viewers and 16.6 ratings among adult 18-49 viewers. "Grey's" grabbed the best post-Super Bowl numbers in five years, since CBS's season premiere of year two of "Survivor" on January 28, 2001. "Grey's" also became the third most-watched program after a Super Bowl since Nielsen started keeping records of this statistic. It ranked only behind "Survivor" in 2001 and "Friends" in 1996.