• by Sarah Mahoney  @mahoney_sarah, November 11, 2024

As consumers continue to rein in spending, there’s been little joy in Toyland. Circana reports that through the first nine months of the year, dollar sales in the toy industry fell flat, with unit sales declining 0.5%. The market research company predicts a 2% year-over-year gain for the final quarter as people push into the holiday season.

LEGO Botanicals—marketed primarily to adults—was one of the brightest spots. Of all 11 super categories, building sets led by LEGO were the only ones to gain in dollars, units, and average selling price. Other growth areas included NBA trading cards, plush sales, driven by Hello Kitty, and vehicles, led by Monster Jam. The biggest losers? Outdoor and sports toys, dolls, and action figures.

The market research company says toy sales amounted to $4.5 billion for the first nine months of the year. Still, while flat compared to last year, the toy industry's declines in both sales and units slowed significantly.

Although noting that sales are 37% ahead of 2019 sales, Juli Lennett, vice president and toy industry advisor at Circana, isn’t expecting a stampede down the toy aisles.

“The toy industry may get a boost this holiday season, with 43% of households with children reporting that they will spend more during the holiday season this year compared to last year -- more than double that of households without children,” she says in the announcement. “Still, a host of other categories are competing for a share of those same wallets. Necessities like clothing and footwear, technology like video games and smartphones, and trending categories like beauty will all challenge the toy industry.” 

While sales trends “reached a level of stability that we have been moving towards,” she said, “the positive performances remain within a small group of categories. What’s needed is more stability across the board.”

Circana also lists the top-selling items in each category for September, offering a hint of which items will be most in demand for the holiday. Those include the Star Wars 2024 Advent Calendar from LEGO in building sets; the Miss Rachel Speak and Sing doll from Spin Master in the plush category; Hasbro’s Nerf N Pinpoint Blaster in outdoors and sports toys; and Mattel’s Disney Descendants 4 The Rise Of Red Fashion Doll Assortment in dolls.