Commentary

Media's Sharp Double-Digit Stock Declines: Who Survives?

Major media-company centric stock market indexes continue to suffer since early April when the word "tariffs" shook the ground under everyone’s feet. Few companies were not impacted.

The Dow Jones U.S. Broadcasting & Entertainment Index closed down 12% to 1,010.97 since April 2, while the Dow Jones U.S. Media Agencies Index fell 11% to 385.41 and the U.S. Media Index lost 12% to 702.11.

Many may wonder about the direction of sensitive premium streaming pricing in the near term. Netflix (Standard no-ads) is priced at $17.99/month, with Hulu (no ads), $9.99/month, Disney+ (no ads) at $16/month, Max (no ads) at $16.99/month, Prime Video (with ads) at $15/month and Apple TV+ (no ads) at $9.99/month.

Although slightly more profitable, these streamers are still in a fragile state -- especially in a mature marketplace. Now they have to consider a possible recession, higher inflation, and declining consumer confidence issues ahead.

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All this comes as an increasing number of companies are “pulling” guidance -- which means less transparency and more volatility.

Should we expect higher prices, more restrictions on password sharing, and perhaps fewer new original TV series?

Here’s the scorecard over the past week and a half:

Walt Disney was down 13% (to $84.89). Paramount was off 10% (to $10.71), with Fox Corp., giving back 14% to $45.65.

TV station groups generally dipped even lower, with Nexstar Media Group plunging 16% to $151.99, Sinclair Inc. sinking 15% to $13.68 and Gannett (Tegna) losing 19% to $15.42.

The major loser so far is Warner Bros. Discovery -- down 25% to $7.97. The big demand-side advertising platform (DSP), The Trade Desk was down 12% to $49.78.

One company was virtually untouched.

Pure-play, digital-first streamer Netflix -- the dominant premium streaming leader -- has seen shoulder shrugging among investors, down 1.8 % to $918.29. But for Roku, the streaming video distributor, it lost 16% up to $60.22.

Now comes word that company-specific tariffs could be coming -- adding to the country-specific ones already announced.

More volatility ahead -- with streaming pricing in its sights. Who can hang on?

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