Commentary

Nexstar-Tegna: FCC Bringing Good Vibes To Hard-Pressed TV Stations Soon?

Two big, independent TV stations are in advanced talks to merge: Nexstar Media Group is looking to strike a deal to buy Tegna, with the value of the deal estimated at around $2.5 billion, according to reports.

This comes as new leadership from the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has started the process of stripping away certain federal rules around TV station ownership.

In their sights: The max rule of TV station ownership that limits companies from owning TV stations that collectively reach more than 39% of U.S. TV households.

Nexstar is already the largest U.S. TV station operator, owning (or partnered) with more than 200 stations.

Tegna, the fourth-largest owner of U.S. TV stations, owns 64 TV stations in 51 U.S. markets.

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For years, TV stations have been under financial stress to grow their business as traditional core local TV station advertising revenues have become weaker over the past few years, due to growing digital media competition from the likes of Meta, Google, and other companies including other social media platforms.

In 2023, Tegna abandoned its $8.6 billion deal with hedge-fund operator Standard General. Soon after the deal was announced, the Biden administration’s FCC decided to hold hearings with regard to the deal -- nearly always bad news for media company deal-making.

Tegna pulled the plug soon afterwards.

Nexstar currently has TV stations -- owned or partnered -- that reach 63% of U.S. TV households. Including other platforms, total U.S. household reach is 70%. Tegna also owns linear TV networks The CW and NewsNation.

Presumably, Nexstar is right at the 39% mark -- as is Tegna.

It is unclear what Tegna's overall TV household reach is among its 64 owned TV stations. Tegna is the largest owner of top-tier network affiliates (ABC, NBC, CBS and Fox) in the top 25 markets -- mostly all VHF stations.

However, it is important to note that the FCC says a UHF TV station in markets is counted as only half that of a VHF station, in terms of the amount of TV households in that specific market -- a so-called “UHF discount” rule. Nexstar and Tegna meets those FCC requirements.

What is not clear is the timing of the announcement -- and whether regulatory federal restrictions that were expected to be easier prompted the move.

“Nexstar remains optimally positioned to take advantage of whatever ends up shaking loose in the M&A market, which could get a boost at next month's FCC meeting,” wrote Daniel Kurnos, media analyst of Benchmark Equity Research, before the news broke with regard to Tegna. "We have continued to call Nexstar the safest play in the space, and they remain the must-own for folks wanting exposure to the evolving deregulatory environment,” Kurnos said.

Some TV stations groups have seen dramatic stock price declines in recent years -- in the wake of continued digital media competition. This new FCC is looking to let the marketplace decide -- more so than with other businesses, and perhaps other areas of the media.

Nexstar sees some good news coming, possibly in a few weeks.

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