• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, 2 hours ago

Will the slowing of TV set sales affect connected TV (CTV) business -- including new TV operating systems on smart TVs?

Let's take another look.

In the second quarter of this year, global TV shipments hit its biggest snag of the year so far -- down 2.1% year-over-year, according to data from technology researcher Omdia.

The full-year 2025 forecast puts global shipments at around 208.7 million units -- essentially flat vs the previous year, down 0.1% year-over-year. Shipments in the U.S. is only slightly better, estimated to rise 1.6% to 49.9 million units.

This flattening of the market has major effects -- especially on companies building smart TV operating systems -- Samsung’s Tizen, LG webOS, Roku OS, Amazon Fire TV OS, Google TV OS -- all are hoping to expand their install base and reach.

Slumping TV set sale activity means trying to monetize revenue via higher-priced home-screen advertising and data licensing as well as TV manufacturers increasing reliance on FAST channels -- free subscription/streaming and fully ad-supported television.

Increasingly, these platforms tend to focus on rising ARPU -- average revenue per user.

With regard to FAST channels, analysts say maturing or declining TV set sales can have a direct negative impact on cost-per-thousand (CPM) prices on FAST platforms.

Projections are that CTV ad growth could slow to single-digit percentage from current double-digits. Premium streamers may also move more aggressively to bundling.

This news does affect the broader business of media overall (mobile, social, retail media, and other areas) --just more focus on software, data, and advertising, less than tied to hardware trends.

Is there any hope? One area that still shows growth is shipments of TVs 80-inch and larger -- expected to rise from to over 13 million units by 2029 from around 9 million units in 2025 -- that comes to 44% increase over four years.

So what’s that mean? Should living rooms need to get bigger? Guessing new home construction is needed and tools and supplies from Home Depot and Lowe’s.

But not everyone will view things this way.