• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, Yesterday

So where is the “anti-competitive’ rub -- specifically -- for those who opposed the Paramount-Warner Bros merger?

Movies? Cable? Streaming? News channels?

To a casual observer, it could be all of the above. But looking at that lawsuit from those 12 state attorney generals, it comes down to just two: theatrical and cable TV, two old-school platforms in transition.

The merger would give the company a roughly estimated one-third share of each marketplace.

That sounds like a big deal, to some.

To others, they look at those businesses that are in massive transformation -- and not in a good, growing way.

But what about streaming and a bigger TV news operation when it comes to CNN-CBS? Those areas aren't mentioned in the lawsuit, which makes sense.

A combination of streaming platforms -- Paramount+, HBO Max, discovery+, would total a 3.7% total day viewing share. That combo would rank in fifth place currently in Nielsen’s June ‘Gauge’ results.

That would be less than YouTube (13.8%), Netflix (7.9%), Walt Disney (4.6%) and Prime Video (4.2%). So one would guess there's currently no current anti-competitive concerns.

Then there’s an expectation some of these platforms would be consolidated and trimmed into perhaps one streaming platform. Might that also change overall viewership levels -- and perhaps advertisers/brands interest?

Rob Bonta, the attorney general of California, told CNBC the lawsuit isn’t interested in streaming because the merger would not have any effect near-term on the streaming marketplace.

The same goes for a possible CBS-CNN combination. News channels are plentiful. Traditional cable TV channels and of course digital and social media channels are everywhere.

From Bonta's point of view, there's some worry about cable TV. But why? Paramount executives have already hinted about reformulating cable TV network operations. We are guessing those networks platforms would be downsized as ad revenues and maybe carriage fees continue to sink.

Theatrical is a big question mark, however.

We know David Ellison, CEO of Paramount Skydance, has promised to maintain production of 30 theatrical movies a year using both Paramount and Warner Bros. studios.

But historically, movie studios often change production schedules for films -- for a number of creative and/or business reasons. How sure are we that Ellison can keep his word -- and for how long? And long term, how do streaming platforms factor into big theatrical distribution?

Now Bonta, Paramount, a number of key industry unions, as well as movie theater chain operators, are all talking settlement, as well as Los Angeles mayor Karen Bass.

What would that possibly look like, especially with so many entertainment business conditions still in flux?