Commentary

Canada Is The Canary In America's Coal Mine

Ten years ago, I wrote a piece called “To Get the Hip is to Get What it Means to Be Canadian.”

By using our national obsession with The Tragically Hip, a rock band most Americans had never heard of, I tried to pry the lid off the reticent Canadian noggin and give you a glimpse inside.

I especially tried to explain our complicated relationship with America. At the time, Obama was still the president, and Donald Trump had just landed the Republican nomination. We had no idea what was to come.

Who did? Seriously, who could have predicted the last 10 years?

Since then, a lot has happened. But most of what I said 10 years ago still stands. It just needs an update, because now, Canada and the U.S. are actively at war.

A trade war, true. But a war, nonetheless. Those are words I never thought I’d say 10 years ago.

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First of all, I’m happy to tell you that Canadians still hold a place in our oversized and slightly frostbitten hearts for the Tragically Hip.

This weekend, Canadians got together from coast to coast to coast to watch a rebroadcast of the show I talked about 10 years ago. The numbers were fewer, but the love was the same. The music still touched something deep in our souls.

This same past weekend, trade talks between the U.S. and Canada broke down. Prime Minister Mark Carney called negotiators back from Washington after a list of last-minute, impossible demands were presented by their American counterparts.

On Saturday morning, Carney delivered what was --  for a politician -- an unusually frank assessment of what went wrong. One phrase stood out: When dealing with Trump’s America, “sometimes the signature is written in pencil.”

Ouch!

Ten years ago, I used an analogy to try to explain the weird mix of emotions Canadian have baked into our relationship with the U.S.: “Living next to you is like becoming friends with the kid who lives next door and who lives in a much bigger house. One weekend, you’re invited for a sleepover. You bring your toys and pack your sleeping bag. The good news is that for breakfast, you finally get to eat all the sugared cereal your mom would never buy for you.  The bad news is, you have to give all your toys to your friend. Sure, you can still come over and play with them any time you want, but they’ll never be yours again.”

Here’s what’s changed in the past decade. Those mixed feelings from then -- which included envy, some passive-aggressive resentment, a genuine love, and a nagging feeling that our relationship is taken for granted -- have now taken a much darker turn.

One thing that was true then, which isn’t today, is that we trusted the U.S.

We trusted you so much, we integrated our entire economy with yours. We tore down our fences, gave you the keys to both our house and garage, loaned you our car and said help yourself to anything in our fridge.

You did the same. We never, ever, ever dreamed we’d have to protect ourselves from you.

It’s a stunning shock to us that this is no longer the case. It’s taking time to sink in. But it is.

In a recent Pew Survey, 59% of Canadians polled identified the U.S. as the biggest threat to them. That put you miles ahead of China (at 17%) and Russia (11%).

Your other neighbor, Mexico, is even more worried. There, 68% put the finger on the U.S. as the biggest bully on the block.

Look, I get that this may be coming as news to you. We Canadians are painfully aware that we think about you much more than you think about us.

If you scan a Canadian news site, the breakdown in trade talks dominates over 80% of the above-the-fold story headlines. On CNN, we’re pushed into one tiny corner. Updates on the Iran conflict dominate most of the page.

But at least we made CNN’s home page. Fox didn’t think a massive rupture with your biggest trading partner was as newsworthy as, say, Trump waving a green flag at a NASCAR race, or a 69-yard field goal kick in the NFL.  

You do see where our insecurity with our relationship might come from, don’t you?

But here’s my point. You may not be paying much attention to this, but you should.

Consider Canada the canary in the coal mine you’re diving into (Note: I wish this was a figure of speech, but it’s literally the truth. Trump is investing heavily in a resurgence in coal power).

When your next-door neighbor is saying you can’t be trusted, you should listen.

Because it’s trust -- the kind we Canadians have banked on for the past several decades -- that has gotten you where you are. It literally put you on top of the world. It’s the currency that gave you the power your president is now flexing.

And that trust has disappeared. According to the 2025 RepCore Nations Study, The U.S.’s international reputation slipped 18 places, from 30th to 48th place, putting you squarely between Kuwait and Kazakhstan in the “weak” reputation category.

Nothing against Kazakhstan, but it that really the neighborhood where you want to hang out?

7 comments about "Canada Is The Canary In America's Coal Mine".
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  1. Ronald Kurtz from Retired, August 27, 2026 at 3:46 p.m.

    Hopefully the Canadians understand that Trump's words and deeds ref Canada reflect the sentiment of only a very small portion of Americans. Once we are rid of Trump, we should try to re-establish the strong relationship we once had. It is important to understand that Trump is following the coward/bully playbook: pounce on the weak (e.g. Venezuela and Cuba) and avoid conflict with the strong (China, Russia, and North Korea). He received a big suprise when Iran turned out to be less weak than he thought. Canada has the potential to pose a similar surprise. 

  2. Joshua Chasin from KnotSimpler, August 28, 2026 at 8:17 a.m.

    The most enduring legacy of the Trump presidency will be the fact that the rest of the world no longer considers the US a reliable trading partner, or a trustworthy ally, One man has singlehandedly terninated the world leadershiop position we have held since World War II. The American Century is officially over. 

  3. Ed Papazian from Media Dynamics Inc, August 28, 2026 at 8:34 a.m.

    Josh, I think that most world leaders--including the bad guys---realize that it's the Trump/MAGGA movement's extreme backlash against what they see as the progressive left's excesses that is causing this disturbing behavior by our government. But it's not most Americans that are blamed and once the MAGA's are quelled many think that a strong, new POTUS can restore America's standing in the world pretty quickly. After all who else is positionan to effectively take the lead. 

  4. Joshua Chasin from KnotSimpler replied, August 28, 2026 at 11:24 a.m.

    i'm far less optimistic. You can't "unlearn" something once you know it. The rest of the world has learned the level of risk associated with an over-reliance on the US for trade and alliances. Sure, they know this is because the POTUS is a malignant narcissist in the throes of frontotemporal dementia. But do you think Canada, e.g., will ever make this mistake again? The fiasco of Trump has laid bare for all the world to see the utter irreponsibility of a nation placing too many eggs in the US basket. If I was a Canadian voter and I had a choice between the "Bygones be bygones, let's disproportionately rely on the US again" candidate, and the "Lesson learned, a diverse portfolio of trade partners and allies is best for Canada" candidate, I know which one would get my vote.

  5. Gordon Hotchkiss from Out of My Gord Consulting replied, August 28, 2026 at 12:43 p.m.

    Ed - I tend to agree with Joshua. It's too easy to try to isolate the issue to Trump alone. Let's not forget that he won the popular vote and has assembled a group of syncophants that has allowed him to do this damage. The fault lines in America run far deeper than just Trump and will still be there when he's gone. The world - and Canada - has learned a very hard lesson here. The US can't be trusted. And once trust is broken, it's not a simple matter to regain it. As far as who else is there to lead - I think the global dynamics have changed substantially. Middle powers have started to step forward to take a bigger role. And let's not forget China, who will be the ultimate winner from the US's decline. As a Canadian, I would love to return to the times of when I repeated crossed the border and our countries were fundamentally aligned but I don't see that coming back in my lifetime.

  6. Ed Papazian from Media Dynamics Inc, August 28, 2026 at 1:22 p.m.

    Gord and Josh, I don't put all of the blame on Trump at all. There has been a growing sense of dissatisfaction by groups who feel left out by changes is society and the  government, by those who resent the growing influence of certain ethnic groups, by those who think that their  "way of life" is threatened by the progresive left's woke ways and it's "socialish" tendancies--which they equate with "Communism", etc. Put these all together and combine them with very weak Democrat POTUS candidates like Harris and an obviously tottering POTUS like Biden, plus a lack of acceptable policies about illegal immigration, and you create fertile ground for a showman like Trump to exploit. And he--under the guidance of his far right manipulators---has exploited it effectively. 

    But even even the undying support of many MAGAS is wavering due to Trump's increasingly unhinged behavior, the damage done by  t he tariff wars, the obviously botched Iran war, etc. This is creating a spectacle for foreign observers to decry and marvel at--but I think that most understand that the MAGA movement will fade once their "leader" is gone--which should be soon. The question is what comes next, more of the same with a hard  right politician? A radical tilt to the far left? A stroner POTUS with centerist leanings who pulls us out of this mess? Needless to say most hope for the latter outcome as a hard shift to the left, will only  revive the MAGAs again.

    In short, all is not lost--in my opinion.

  7. Ben B from Retired replied, August 29, 2026 at 12:59 a.m.

    I agree Ed I want a more a middle of the road President than an extremist on either side. If Dems had a legit open primary I'd bitten the bullet and voted for Whitmer which I didn't when she ran for Governor Of Michigan in 2018 or 2022 or Josh Shapiro. I didn't like Kamala Harris and I'll never vote for her like Trump the last 2 times he ran in 2020, 2024.

    I hope that Canada & USA can be friends once again and get a trade deal once Trump is out of office shouldn't be dependent on just one country as it seem what Canada has with the USA. I didn't like Trump wanting to make Canada the 51ST state either. I'm with Canada on this, tariffs is wrong on so many levels which is taxes on everyone.     

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