• by Ray Schultz , Columnist, 4 hours ago

Maybe your holiday email plan is too far along to change  now. But a pair of new surveys—from ICSC and Adtaxi—show that this could be a reasonably good year for retailers, despite concerns about inflation and jobs.  

For instance, ICSC found that 88% plan to buy holiday gifts, with 78% expecting to spend the same or more than last year . The high spenders, the top 10%, anticipate spending five times over the average.  

But 49% of consumers will borrow money to cover purchases they cannot pay for now. And 47% expect holiday spending will delay or reduce debt repayment, savings or retirement contributions.

Moreover, while 83% say they can keep up with their primary expenses, many are experiencing greater financial pressure. Of those polled, 49% are worried about even being able to afford holiday gifts, while 50% say their spending will be affected by their personal or household debt.

And, fears about the job market will influence spending for 49%, up from 43% YoY. 

ICSC also found that 61% of holiday shoppers plan to use AI tools or assistants, compared to 47% in 2025. They expect to use AI for comparing prices, (29%), researching products and features (19%), checking availability (18%), and finding deals (16%). 

Bottom-line predictions? ISCS forecasts 4.3% to 4.9% growth and a total spend exceeding $1.7 trillion.  

“Consumers have made it clear they are willing to make sacrifices for the things that matter to them this holiday season, but they are making careful decisions about when and where they spend to make that money go further,” says Tom McGee, president and CEO of ICSC. 

McGee adds, “Shoppers remain resilient, but they’re more discerning and value-conscious; competitive prices, convenient shopping options, and experiences that bring people together are non-negotiable for retailers to attract shoppers and give them reasons to return throughout the season.” 

ISCS surveyed 1,003 consumers from Sept. 21-23. The survey represents a demographically representative sample of 1,003 respondents. 

Adtaxi saw somewhat similar results in its survey. 

For example, it found that 38.5% of consumers expect to spend more this year, about the same as ISCS.  

Yet 59% say higher prices are likely to influence their holiday spending decisions, although this varies by income. Of shoppers with low household income, 42.2% are concerned about their personal financial situation, while 54.4% cite wages as worrisome.  

It's not just lower-income consumers: 60% of more-affluent shoppers are also worried about inflation. 

The main goals for shoppers are finding the lowest prices (35%)  and staying within budget (27%). A mere 9% have a splurge mindset. 

“Consumers are disciplined, but not disengaged,” says Adtaxi Director of Research Murry Woronoff. “The 2026 holiday advantage will not come from simply spending more advertising dollars. It will come from entering earlier, finding the consumers with the greatest incremental potential, making value relevant to them and removing friction between discovery and purchase.”

Email teams are well-equipped to do that. 

Using Survey Monkey, Adtaxi surveyed 1,029 consumers on Aug. 25.