• by Erik Sass , October 2, 2006

August was another stale month for radio--with local ad revenue again falling 2 percent, compared to the same month last year, according to the Radio Advertising Bureau (RAB). There was one bright spot, however: National ad revenue rose 12 percent compared to August 2005, pulling the grand total up 1 percent on a year-over-year basis. Total local and national sales were down 1 percent in July, compared to the same month last year, and June was flat.

Jeff Haley, the new president and CEO of the Radio Advertising Bureau (RAB), pointed to national spot ad sales as growing revenue that offsets declining local non-spot losses, during Media magazine's Forecast 2007 conference last week. Haley compared radio's situation to the equilibrium achieved in TV sales, despite a slow upfront. "We're starting to see the same impact in radio with the national spot market." As a result, he said: "It's now looking better than it has for some time. There's nothing that's going to blow the doors off, but I think it will be up slightly."

Haley also said he believes electronic measurement from Arbitron's Portable People Meter (PPM) will lend more transparency and accountability to radio ratings, making the medium more attractive to media buyers.

"One-third of the broadcasters out there will be using the PPM by the end of the year," Haley observed, predicting a "transformation of how radio is regarded in the media mix."

When pressed, Haley conceded that the Arbitron PPM still faced major hurdles--principally, the skepticism of Clear Channel Radio, the nation's largest radio network. Clear Channel is leading a lengthy industry audit of various electronic measurement devices, including Arbitron's PPM. Clear Channel has questioned Arbitron's ability to roll out the device across national markets in a timely fashion, and also insists that PPM receive accreditation from the Media Rating Council (MRC).

"It's a make-or-break year on this," Haley said, ruefully admitting that "there are some leading players that are still not there." But Haley said the long controversy over ratings devices could be a smokescreen for haggling over the financial terms of Arbitron's service: "Clearly, with a one-vendor option, there's some harsh pricing negotiations going on."