• by Wayne Friedman , June 1, 2007

Cable network research executives reacted to Nielsen's release of the first standardized ratings of TV commercials and DVR viewership with a shrug.

"It looks reasonably close to what we expected," said Jack Wakshlag, chief research officer for the Turner Broadcasting Co. "There are no surprises here. Even that Nielsen has already recalled some data." Thirty minutes after releasing the report, Nielsen said it was recalling syndicated program data.

The long-awaited report offered numbers that many researchers already estimated--especially as it concerns DVR viewership. For instance, for adults 18-49 in all U.S. TV households, total live viewing among the broadcast networks is 90%; for cable networks, 97%; for syndicated shows, 98%. After three days of viewing of DVR playback, the numbers rise to 99%, 100%, and 100%, respectively.

Overall, Nielsen didn't release much to the press in the way of actual commercial ratings per program or per network. However, Nielsen sent more in-depth data to its clients.

Wakshlag says the numbers appear the same as what broadcast, cable and syndicating programmers already expected by processing data through Nielsen's Npower service. Commercial-ratings retention of broadcast programs is around 95% to 97%--but lower on cable networks, anywhere from three to five percentage points lower.

For example, Wakshlag says TBS, TNT and CourtTV are around 92% to 93%. Sources say some of the Viacom cable networks, such as MTV, are lower than that--estimated at 85% or so.

"This shouldn't be considered anything other that evaluation data," says Nick Febrizio, senior vice president of research and strategy for A&E Television Networks--although he notes that some media agencies will probably try to negotiate deals from this data.

"I'm concerned about the accuracy of the data," says Febrizio. "This hasn't been vetted with MRC [Media Rating Council] yet. The risk of inaccuracy can go in either direction. It's about getting it right."

Cable executives had expressed concern over the alarming finding that Nielsen was unable to distinguish between national commercials and local cable commercials. But Wakshlag says that since March, Nielsen has been making progress in putting technology in its Nielsen sample homes that will distinguish between the two types of spots.

What remains, says Wakshlag, are these concerns: "Is the system fail-safe, and when will it get audited by the MRC? This new data won't change the way we do business. It's too late. [However], we are prepared to work with advertisers."

Wakshlag noted that only a handful of TV shows and network programs actually witnessed rating gains via commercial ratings with three days of DVR playback.

Only three shows--"The Office," "Family Guy" and "Bones"--improved by 5% or more in the first week of May sweeps period, April 30 to May 6. "That isn't a typical week," he says, adding that the vast majority of shows are about 95% of the corresponding program ratings.