• by David Goetzl  @dgoetzl, June 14, 2007

Despite networks insisting they will be paid for DVR-enabled viewing, the top broadcast buyer at the agency managing the massive Geico account said Wednesday he will only make upfront deals based on "live" only data--and furthermore, will not use commercial ratings.

Citing issues with the accuracy and reliability of Nielsen data, Aaron Cohen--executive vice president-director of broadcast at Horizon Media, the largest independent media agency with $1.4 billion in billings--said "for one more year" he will hold the line and refuse to negotiate on anything but "live" ratings.

Somewhat surprisingly, since broadcasters have been so dogged in their pledge to investors and others about deriving dollars from DVR viewing, Cohen said "virtually" all networks he's spoken with have agreed to move forward on a "live"-only basis. He said that stretches across broadcast, cable and syndication.

Representatives from the five major broadcast networks either declined or did not provide comment.

To be sure, the upshot of Cohen's push to continue negotiating on traditional metrics--"live program ratings"--is unclear, since he said Horizon is waiting for networks to offer it plans. He declined to say whether Horizon would shift money away from networks that insist on DVR payment. "We'll worry about that when we finish our conversations, which are ongoing," he said.

And despite some momentum in the industry to do deals using a combination of commercial ratings and the "live plus three day" DVR data stream, the well-respected Cohen said he's sticking with Nielsen's long-used program ratings.

Essentially, he said the new data--the commercial ratings and how they relate to DVR viewing--are either unreliable or too new to be utilized. He mentioned that the commercial ratings have not been accredited by the Media Rating Council; the commercial ratings data released have been flawed, and there is not enough historical data to derive share estimates for new network shows.

A Nielsen representative, Gary Holmes, said in a statement: "We do not concur that there are any major issues that need to be ironed out. The most significant issue that I can think of was being able to report all the major syndicators, but that should be worked out soon (if it isn't already worked out)." The commercial ratings data is still labeled "for evaluation purposes" by Nielsen but will become "regular" Nielsen data by the September start of the 2007-08 season.

Cohen's position underscores much of the uncertainty that hovers over the nascent upfront. While Horizon would prefer to avoid the quid pro quo of a commercial ratings/"live plus three" currency where buyers would potentially benefit from commercial ratings and networks would receive DVR credit, GroupM made a sizable deal using that trade-off Wednesday.

Cohen's position at least raises the possibility that "live" traditional ratings may not be gone for good, and if a consensus forms among a cadre of agencies on that front, it could stymie networks--especially if it's a buyer's market.