• by Joe Mandese , February 8, 2008

Shares of Aegis Group have begun a modest rally amid renewed speculation that French financier and ardent suitor Vincent Bollore is drawing up new plans to make a bid to acquire the British agency holding company and merger it with Paris-based Havas, where he is chairman and also the largest shareholder. The speculation was triggered by reports in several European papers and trade magazines, including Campaign, which first reported the news. Financial news service Reuters, quoting an unnamed Havas source, said the story was based on "illinformed speculation."

But the facts are that Bollore currently controls more than 29.9% of Aegis' stock, just below the minimum level that U.K. law requires a formal takeover bid; he has publicly avowed his desire to acquire Aegis and merge it with Havas, and Aegis shares have been trading near their recent low.

Prices of Aegis shares closed Thursday at $2.24, up from a recent low of $2.10, but considerably below their 52-week high of $2.95. Bollore's quest for control of Aegis has also been consistently thwarted inside the Aegis boardroom and among its shareholders, who rejected several attempts by Bollore to appoint his allies to the board.

While Bollore has maintained his an active interest in acquiring Aegis, as has the senior management of Havas, Fernando Rodés Vilà, the chief executive of the French holding company said as recently as early December that there have been no discussions between the two companies for some time.

And while Bollore's pursuit of Aegis has been one of the great ad industry sagas of the past several years, it has failed to trigger the kind of bidding war that many have projected, with companies like WPP, Publicis and Omnicom jumping in the fray. Both Publicis and WPP had held talks with Aegis years ago, but have not mustered recent overtures, though WPP chief Martin Sorrell is known to covet both Aegis' Synovate research operations, as well as media networks such as Carat, Isobar, and Posterscope.

Based on its current share value, Aegis has a market value of about $2.5 billion, though a takeover battle could drive it much higher. Aegis' management, meanwhile, has been plugging away, making acquisitions of its own, especially in regards to its Isobar network, and pitching new business to build its shareholder value the old-fashioned way: By growing its businesses.