The researchers project there will be 42.7 million DVR homes at the end of 2012 (36.3% of a would-be 117 million TV homes). That's compared to 24.6 million homes now, accounting for 22.1% of the 111.4 U.S. television homes.
Some 36% of homes with the commercial-zapping devices in 2012 is significant, but appears to be considerably less than some of the bullish projections previously floated.
The number of homes with VOD will also grow significantly over the same time frame, from 36 million (32.3% of homes) now to 61.9 million in five years (more than half of TV homes).
Still, the new Magna report hammers home a point many others have made regarding VOD:it may be a long time before it becomes a significant advertising platform. Magna pins VOD ad insertion avails as accounting for less than .1% of total TV inventory (16 trillion annual impressions).
And that small percentage is particularly notable because VOD offers an opportunity to facilitate addressable advertising--something cable operators are looking to as a growth driver and advertisers are clamoring for with its potential for granular targeting.
In the DVR arena nowadays, Magna estimates that even though DirecTV subscribers are believed to skew more upscale than competitor Dish, DTV currently has fewer customers paying for DVR service. DTV stands at 5.2 million DVR homes (30.9% of its subscriber base), versus Dish at 5.7 million (41.6%).
Both trump cable operators--even Comcast, which may have double the distribution of each. Magna estimates that 3.8 million Comcast subscribers (15.8% of customers) have DVRs.