• by Dave Morgan , Featured Contributor, April 10, 2008

I know that we're barely into spring, but I'm finding it hard not to think about this coming summer. Why? Because I think that the coming summer months will be the online advertising industry's most important several months since the summer of 2000. That summer, as you may recall, was the time when the industry fell off a cliff -- and it became apparent that business wasn't going to quickly and easily scale its way back.

No. Don't worry. By no means do I think that we are poised to fall off a cliff like that again. However, I do think that online advertising is going to have some transformational moments this summer. I expect the following:

• Economic slowdown. Call it a recession. Call it whatever you like, but we are certainly starting to experience some caution and slowdown in consumer-focused businesses, which I think will deepen this summer. Hopefully, it will be shallow and short, but you never know until it's over.

• Portal and platform consolidation. I don't know whether we will have Microhoo or MyAOLSpace or Googlehoo, but I do know that we will have some answers this summer. Given the depth, breadth and ubiquity of the various consumer and advertising services offered by the top four players, a reshuffling of that leadership pack will be felt by everyone -- and for some time.

• More musical chairs among sales heads. We have seen changes of the sales head position at a number of the large sites over the past few months. We will see more. When companies shift market focus, or strategies or expectations are being diminished or dashed, the head of sales usually takes the heat first. Fortunes are changing for many in our industry, so I expect that we will see more sales heads head for the door or be shown the door before Labor Day.

• More global focus. I've written about this trend here before, but it is even truer today. As U.S. online ad growth slows, and global Internet audiences continue to explode, more and more companies will look outside the borders of the U.S. for their future. By the end of this summer, I suspect that we will have seen global initiatives launched by at least a dozen of the larger online players in the U.S.

• More start-ups having more impact. More and more companies are launching online advertising and marketing businesses. Technology is becoming cheaper to acquire, easier to use and more certain in its application.  The big guys and their consolidation dance may own the headlines this month, but they won't by September. Some of the smaller and newer players, I think, will start taking bigger roles in setting the agenda in our industry.

 A summer of change coming? What do you think?