• by Frank S. Foster , April 28, 2008

At an industry event last week, I participated in a panel where we were asked to predict the future of television.  I will be the first to admit that I am not the best person to make such conjectures.  If prognostication is what you seek, go to the experts with long histories in the television industry.  I believe there is limited value in my opinion of whether or not we will be viewing television on the internet or viewing internet pages on television in 2013. 

People like me, technologists and researchers, tend to focus on the present. We are most comfortable in tactical "where the rubber meets the road" situations.  That having been said, with more than 20 years in the technology industry and nearly half consumed by cable television and media research, my opinion on the future of Project Canoe may be somewhat interesting. 

Project Canoe has tremendous potential.  Imagine a single sales entity that might allow cable to compete in the national spot market with a variety of new television advertising vehicles.  Perhaps Madison Avenue might be interested in on-demand and addressable advertising on a massive scale?  Project Canoe may provide the answer.  Would CBS be interested in reducing its national inventory by one minute per prime-time hour to sell Canoe-enabled addressable spots during "Survivor" or "Cold Case"?  Would NBC and Fox embrace an on-demand, addressable-ad-supported service to complement Hulu?  Would advertisers be interested in true, near-census commercial ratings for both broadcast and cable television?  With a unified advertising sales vision across all cable operators, these opportunities and more are possible. 

Were it up to me, Project Canoe would focus on three core areas:  (1) advertising sales, (2) advertising technology, and (3) audience research.  Make significant progress in each of these areas, and Project Canoe could raise the entire ad-supported television industry.  But will the cable operators let it happen?  Make no mistake about it:  the biggest threat to the effort will be the long arm of politics and partisanship.  What is good for Comcast is not always good for cable, despite conventional wisdom.  Project Canoe's biggest hurdle will be keeping all the operators on-board and happy.

Advertising sales. Arguably the biggest hurdle to increased advertising sales in local cable is the planning and buying process itself.  Across all platform -- linear, non-linear and addressable -- media planning is difficult because reliable viewing data for local ad supported cable does not exist.  Buying can involve multiple contacts, systems and timelines.  Posting is a fantasy.  While linking the data sets with planning, buying, trafficking and posting systems is a non-trivial task, Project Canoe's engineers should be able to solve those problems.  But the question remains, will the cable operators provide Canoe access to the data and resources necessary to deliver the goods? 

Advertising technology. Although the latest television advertising technologies offer nearly limitless possibilities, each has its unique challenges.  A cursory examination of addressable advertising reveals several tactical hurdles.  In addition to the issues surrounding the testing and deployment of a complicated technology, Canoe must conduct research to provide insight into: (a) targeting accuracy, (b) delivery verification, and (c) content suitability.  There are a number of approaches to targeting, but Canoe must work with third parties to identify which targeting technologies are the most effective.  Questions from planning, "What is the likelihood a message might reach the desired target in the time frame needed?" to verification, "Was the message actually delivered?" to post-campaign analysis, "Was the message favorably received?" must all be addressed.  With access to census data, the answers can be found.  Put professionals like Cox's Michael McCarthy in charge, provide them with sufficient resources and they will ensure the technology works as promised.  But will Comcast and Time Warner cede other key personnel and decision-making authority to Canoe?  Only time will tell.

Audience research. While set-top-box data may be the single most divisive issue in television audience research circles today, perhaps the most intriguing long-term research concept associated with Canoe is media exposure across the internet, mobile and television environments.  If you believe cable operators are fundamentally in the business of managing bandwidth and billing systems, it is logical to assume customers will have more than Verizon and AT&T as options for a quadruple play.  Imagine a privacy-compliant data source capable of providing cross-media consumption data with subscriber counts in the millions.  Advertisers and agencies alike are clamoring for this data now.  Will Time Warner, historically conservative when it comes to anonymous STB data, allow Canoe to link consumption across media platforms?  For Canoe to be successful, the operators must not only condone but allow such activity.

So what do I think the future holds for Project Canoe?  I think it is likely sometime in the next two weeks a charismatic CEO will be named who may be capable of convincing the cable operators to put aside their petty differences for the good of advertising sales.  I also predict that a number of high-profile industry veterans will join Project Canoe before the end of the summer.  I think the operators will create an entity that appears to be powerful and independent but will likely remain the property of the operators themselves.  I can hope that the organization will demonstrate the foresight to select individuals who know how to execute tactically.  I will urge the cable operators to get out of the way and let those people do their jobs. 

Ultimately, for Project Canoe to be successful, it may take an unlikely savior: economics.  While advertising sales historically account for a small portion of operator revenue, the impact on profits is significant and will only grow over time.  With competition encroaching upon every revenue-generating aspect of the operators' business, margin pressures are rising.  In this environment, Project Canoe may promise a pathway to financial stability.  Should Canoe deliver on this front, the future will be bright indeed.