Despite billions of dollars in incremental spending from so-called quadrennial events like the Summer Olympic Games and a presidential election season, ad spending declined 1.7% during the first nine
months of 2008 across the U.S. media measured by ad tracking firm TNS Media Intelligence. It is the most empirical data yet showing that the U.S. ad economy officially receded this year, and it looks
very unlikely based on forecasts released this week, and other economic news, that the fourth quarter will look any better.
Jon Swallen, senior vice president-research at TNS MI
characterized the U.S. media economy as going from "tiptoeing into negative territory" lat year to deep-diving into an economic downturn in 2008.
"Preliminary data from the fourth quarter
indicate a further slackening of the overall advertising market," he stated. "Consumer spending levels, which drive the corporate profits that in turn fund marketing budgets, remain a serious concern
and will have a strong influence on the depth and duration of the current difficulties facing advertising."
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The big bright spot, according to TNS MI, remains the Internet. While TNS MI doesn't
currently report some of the fastest growing online sectors - such as paid search - it estimates that online display advertising grew 7.0% during the first nine months of 2008, though the rate of
growth has declined for five consecutive quarters.
The Summer Olympics boosted third-quarter Network TV ad spending and turned a six-month loss into a nine month gain with year-to-date
expenditures up 3.0 percent. Cable TV (+3.7 percent) was aided by limited exposure to the early-year TV writer's strike and successful summer programming. Syndication TV (+9.0 percent) benefited from
more hours of programming.
Percent Change in Measured
Ad Spending:
Jan-Sept 2008 vs. Jan-Sept 2007
1
MEDIA SECTOR · Media Type (Sectors and types listed in rank order of
spending) | % CHANGE |
TELEVISION MEDIA | 2.1% |
·
Network TV | 3.0% |
· Cable TV | 3.7% |
· Spot TV 2 | -2.6% |
· Spanish Language
TV | 0.3% |
· Syndication - National | 9.0% |
MAGAZINE MEDIA 3 | -3.9% |
· Consumer Magazines | -3.8% |
·
B-to-B Magazines | -6.9% |
· Sunday Magazines | 0.3% |
· Local Magazines | -6.5% |
· Spanish Language
Magazines | 4.9% |
NEWSPAPER
MEDIA | -10.0% |
· Local
Newspapers | -10.2% |
· National Newspapers | -8.9% |
· Spanish Language Newspapers | -12.7% |
INTERNET 4 | 7.0% |
RADIO MEDIA | -8.8% |
·
Local Radio 5 | -8.8% |
· National Spot Radio | -11.1% |
· Network
Radio | -2.6% |
OUTDOOR | -0.5% |
FSIs 6 | 0.9% |
TOTAL | -1.7% |
Source:
TNS Media Intelligence
1. Figures are based on the TNS Media Intelligence Stradegy™ multimedia ad expenditure
database across all TNS MI measured media, including: Network TV (6 networks); Spot TV (101 markets); Cable TV (52 networks); Syndication TV; Hispanic Network TV; Consumer (PIB) Magazines (212
publications); Sunday Magazines (5 publications); Local Magazines (20 publications); Hispanic Magazines (27 publications); Business-to-Business Magazines (288 publications); Local Newspapers (144
publications); National Newspapers (3 publications); Hispanic Newspapers (50 publications); Network Radio; Spot Radio; Local Radio; Internet; and Outdoor. Figures do not include public service
announcement (PSA) data.
2. Spot TV figures do not include Hispanic Spot TV data.
3. Magazine media includes Publishers Information Bureau (PIB) data.
4. Internet figures are based on display advertising only.
5. Local Radio includes expenditures for 32 markets in the U.S.
6. FSI data represents distribution costs
only.