Commentary
Some More Positivity And Opportunity
- by Cory Treffiletti , Featured Contributor, January 14, 2009
1. The Obama effect. Typically a new Presidential inauguration translates to at least a minor lift in major economic metrics. There's optimism and there's hope that a new direction will bring new opportunities. This seems to be the case with Obama getting sworn into office next week, although every economist is tempering his or her predictions with the caveat that this is a truly unique situation and all bets are pretty much off for what's going to happen. The possibility is that a new administration with different points of view may stabilize things, even if it doesn't make them better. As for our industry, a new administration provides excitement for many consumers -- and marketers may look to find ways to capitalize on that excitement.
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2. The Microsoft effect. Microsoft announced that Windows 7 was in beta and available for download at CES -- and then the company pulled it away because of such high demand for beta testers. That translates to a very obvious demand in the marketplace for the next iteration of Windows, which means ad dollars and consumer spending. If and when Microsoft releases Windows 7 to the public in its official form, it could and should translate to a large consumer ad campaign. I would anticipate strong consumer response from the PC folks who aren't enamored with Vista (they've already demonstrated they want the product, so why not make sure they know when it's available?). If Microsoft starts spending a bunch, you have to think the competition will try to match it, and ad spend could get stronger and more competitive at the tail end of the year. I guess we'll have to wait for more news and announcements from Mr. Ballmer and company.
3. The accountability effect. For the most part, everyone believes that overall ad spend will decrease in 2009 and 2010, but if you peel back the onion you start to see that the true predictions are that less accountable media will lose dollars and the Internet will still gain. The gains may only be in the 4%-6% range, or even 10%-11%, depending on who you talk to, but the fact is that digital is accountable and can be measured for response -- and that makes marketers happy! In tight times, marketers spend on the elements that drive business metrics, like sales. Internet media has made a big push for brand dollars, but the fact is, it's probably the best direct-response vehicle in use right now. You can measure actual exposure, actual response , and you can make changes and optimize a campaign in hours. These are not the characteristics of TV, print or even direct mail, so those dollars will likely continue to flow in our direction.
These three possible trends translate to opportunity -- and I'm positive that our industry can rise to take advantage of these opportunities. The RFPs are still in the marketplace, even if they require a little more song and dance to be won. The marketers' eyes that are reviewing the publishers' proposals are staying focused and examining the details, but our industry holds up well to intense scrutiny because we've been through all this before! The VCs became smarter about what they invested in over the last few years since the 2000 bubble, and as a result the companies they fostered are still armed properly and poised for success.
I am truly excited -- and I think you should be too. So get to work!
Agreed on Point 3 - Accountability. Our business continues to expand quickly as marketers continue to buy more and more CPC advertising as it's brutally efficient - either they can hit a CPA goal or not. We see more new marketers plus other advertisers already upping their spend commitments for 2009, and our publisher partners benefit as we drive higher revenue yields for them - everyone can win, including the consumer.
Most of the time we just do things in a booming economy. Hopefully this slowdown will give us time to reflect on what we are doing and how we can do it better. A little more time in this mode will make or industry and jobs stronger and our messages more effective.
Prof. Dick Shoemaker
It's unfortunate that there has to be "effects" to drive people's optimism, but I suppose that is the way human nature is at times.
Aside from a momentary lapse at the apex of the financial meltdown in August, I've never felt this economy was so awful. Perhaps it's the result of having grown up in the 1970's and remembering what real recessions are like. But more importantly, it's the realization that economies are not guided by politicians and pundits - they are guided by the indomitable spirit of individuals with ideas and effort.
It is true that boom times bring out the worst in us - entitlement, laziness, high expectations. But we tend to ignore these during boom times. Sadly, recessions bring out the VERY WORST in us - pessimism, lack of care, backbiting, schadenfreude.
In times such as these, it's important to remember that we have good times because we put in good effort and think creatively. Just because the good times have seemingly ended doesn't mean they won't come back. It's up to each one of us to stop paying attention to things that won't help (politics, lousy journalism, rumor) and pay attention to doing a good job for both ourselves AND our clients.
Bravo !
Was it just a coincidence that an ad with a big yellow smiley face appeared next to your post? Subliminal?
Thanks for bringing this topic up. While I don't believe that wishing for better times will make things better, I do believe that any fool can point out the problem. The hard part is coming up with a solution.
It's worth keeping in mind that while unemployment rates are higher than they have been in decades there are still plenty of people with jobs. While there are lots of people defaulting on their mortgages, the vast majority are making timely payments on theirs.
As humans we pay attention to drama because historically it was those things that caused conflict that were most apt to kill us. While times are undeniably tough for many of us we need to keep in mind that most of us are not suffering life threatening predicaments. Sure, its uncomfortable and uncertain but most of us will survive just fine.
In the meanwhile it's worth focusing on the good of the world, or our industry and of the future. Wringing our collective hands isn't going to result in much more than creating unnecessary anxiety and sadness.
Great Points. The herd mentality in news also kills me. Every time I hear a story about a company letting go of employees I know that in a few months I will start to hear news stories about companies starting up or expanding. It’s like news outlets are waiting for the memo saying, ‘the bad economy news cycle is finished, please start the good economy stories now...’.
Cory, thanks for pointing out the bright spots. The doom and gloom reports are not only obvious, they've become repetitive. It's time to focus on the opportunities presenting themselves and your commentary is a good first step.
Thank god!!! finally someone is speaking of the right way to approach the world now. We all work in a media and we have lost all of our sense of hope...
So thanks for nicely telling people to suck it and move forward. We know the bad news is upon us, now let's go make some changes.
LOVE the positive attitude - keep it up! This will all come to an end in its time, and like the Allstate commercial - let's enjoy the simple things and reevaluate our lives a bit while we can.