Fox's 'Fringe': Less Ads, Less Ad-Skipping

by David Goetzl , January 21, 2009

Fox's experiment--looking to increase commercial viewing by running fewer ads in the drama "Fringe"--may be paying off. A lower percentage of ads are apparently being skipped compared with several other Fox series, according to ratings that include DVR use.

On average, ratings indicate that about 13% of ads in "Fringe" were dodged last fall, thanks to a remote control or DVR. That's compared to some 16% to 20% for the other leading hour-long Fox shows: "House," "Bones," "Prison Break" and "Terminator: the Sarah Connor Chronicles."

The figures--which are for the adult 18-to-49 demo--are derived by comparing "live plus three day" program ratings (P3) with "live plus three day" commercial ratings (C3). That's not a foolproof metric for calculating commercial-skipping, but it provides some guidance.

"Fringe," for example, averaged a 3.9 in its P3 ratings over 11 episodes, and a 3.4 in C3--indicating that 13% of commercials were skipped, most of those presumably via a DVR.

"Fringe" is the first show in an initiative that Fox unveiled last spring, billed as "Remote Free TV," where it pledges to run only 10 minutes of national ads an hour. The usual load is in the 16-minute range, where "House" and the other 60-minute shows have been this season.

The 13% commercial-avoidance rate for "Fringe" compares with 20% for "Prison Break," 17% for "Terminator" and "Bones," and 16% for "House." The overall average for the Fox network is 11%. But that figure includes portions of some NFL games and the World Series, where DVR viewing is low and would seem to drive down the network's total skipping rate.

While it would stand to reason that fewer ads lead to greater tune-in, there are caveats. Some networks can boost commercial retention by changing where the ads run within an hour, including stacking them closer to the beginning. Also, the time slot a show airs in--and what airs before it--can have an impact.

Fox did not provide immediate comment.

The figures cover the Sept. 22-Dec. 21 period and come from Magna Global. Hoping that their messages have a better chance of getting through with fewer ads, advertisers are paying a premium to run in "Fringe."

CPMs are some 25% to 30% higher for the series compared with shows of similar appeal, a source said. A second source said Fox began by asking for a 50% premium in exchange for 50% fewer commercials. Fox needs to charge a significant per-spot increase to make up for lost revenues that accompany a lower ad load.

Top Fox executive Kevin Reilly told MediaPost last week that the network would like to offer advertisers similar less-is-more opportunities, but the market may not be able to bear it.

"Not all advertisers can pay that kind of premium." Reilly said. "That's the conundrum of advertisers. They don't want clutter, [but they don't want to pay higher prices]."

John Spiropoulos, vice president and research director at MediaVest, said it doesn't make sense for advertisers to pay those premiums. A higher price for a reduced ad load does not translate into a corresponding jump in ROI--whether it be by a change in brand perception or lift in sales results or another metric, he said.

"It's not an equal relationship or even close to it," he said.

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3 comments about "Fox's 'Fringe': Less Ads, Less Ad-Skipping".

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William Hughes from Arnold Aerospace, January 22, 2009 at 11:17 a.m.
Isn't this a surprise? Why do you think so many people record shows before watching them? Year after year we, the Viewers have been given the short-end of the stick when it comes to viewing. As a matter of fact we have gotten the shaft TWICE! First of all, we pay ever-increasing fees in order to subscribe to Cable or Satellite TV, then we end up getting less program because of the increased Advertising. Many of these Commercials are presented in a manner that many of us find obnoxious or even offending. And those companies think that if we see those ads eight times each hour they will get our business! If the Networks want to make more money let the laws of supply and demand work and cut the number of advertisments that are shown each hour. The quality of programming will increase, and we as viewers may even decide to forgo recording a show before watching it!
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John Grono from GAP Research, January 22, 2009 at 4:45 p.m.

I'll give you a clue.

When you see a channel or a network that does NOT start all its programmes at the top or bottom of the hour, then you can be sure that they are carrying less programme content.

Viewers tend to forget that programmes are made with enough 'blank space' in to which ads can be inserted - thus paying for their production costs. Truth be known, many programmes never recoup their investment, but the blockbusters make money by the shovel-load. A typical 30-minute programme will actually run for 22 to 23 minutes. The broadcaster has a couple of options (i) fill the time with ads and generate revenue to keep the production cycle going (you know - the fairies do not miraculoulsy make these programmes overnight at the bottom of the garden) (ii) fill the time with promos and IDs - or with a mix of ads (iii) "go to black" - show nothing - which no-one in their right mind would do (iv) walk away from the concept of starting programmes at the start of the hour and half-hour. We have a couple of brave broadcasters here in Australia who are doing the latter and so far with no discernible detriment. This is also a GREAT opportunity to commission and show 'short-form' (1-3 minute) interstitial programmes.

Brian Cauley from media iq, January 24, 2009 at 9:56 a.m.

When you look at the sec-by-sec data for Fringe you can see what FOX is trying to do. The comm'l dips for Fringe look like icicles vs a normal 1 hr show where the pod dips are wider, more like canyons. The question is: are the dips the same depth, or does the shorter break make for a smaller dip? Said differently, does a shorter break dissuade viewers from tuning out (or f'fing if they're in playback mode.)

We studied Fringe vs Bones, another FOX drama in the same time slot. Fringe showed less viewer tune out for both Live viewers and those in playback. Most dramatically, viewers in playback fast forwarded 30%-50% less than the playback viewers to Bones.

The pods in Fringe were less deep; Fringe held its viewers though the break much better than a normally structured program.

Lastly, I should mention that Fringe communicates the length of the break before it runs (eg "Fringe will be back in 90 seconds.").