Commentary
Prediction Science Does Not Support Biden Dropping Out
- by Ed DeNicola , Op-Ed Contributor, July 5, 2024
Political pundits can and often do express opinions without repercussions. They are rarely held to account for what they say, and there is little causal political research to prove them wrong.
It’s fair to say that Biden didn’t have his best performance during 2024's first presidential debate, but that doesn’t …
4 comments about "Prediction Science Does Not Support Biden Dropping Out".
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Ed: A truly insightful piece. In view of the ever present range of bounce in poll results and the fundmental flaws in using and reporting "standard error", I believe that if we use double the stated and misguided "standard error' to establish the reange of potential poll repsults we are on much safer ground. If this approach is indeed more meaningful, we will likely have a statistical tie on any of the reputable polls from now until November.
The "over/under" bet for whether Biden will gain or lose voter confidence in his mental ability surely has greater risk for the lose result. I regret that, but in the absence of having and releasing the results of a proper medical exam, the odds are that his standing will only get worse. More press conferences and speeches will not get the job done. Time is of the essence. I hope the President will have a proper medical exam or withdraw from the nomination. If the latter, he should try to build a coalition around Harris and try to avoid party in fighting. She would have a good chance of winning if she redirected the Democratic party's agenda to appeal to the group positioned in the center right to the center left of the political spectrum. Polls show this is where the majority of voters reside and that they want evolutionary (not revolutionary) change and bi-partisan compromise to resolve the major issues facing us.
Good piece, Ed.
Unfortunately, I think that this is a case where no matter what the varagies of the polls are that enough people who saw the shocking deterioration that has befallen Biden---especially likely GOP switch voters---from Trump to Biden---as well as moderate Democrat party faithful---will be unable to cast a POTUS vote for Biden. Many will still favor him in the polls and will vote for Democrat congressional and senatorial candidates --but pass on the POTUS line.
As for Harris, were she to get the nomination replacing Biden and be properly coached so she gets her facts straight, stops giggling and acts like a serious candidate, I suspect that there is enough anti-Trump sentiment to, perhaps, see her through to a narrow win. In this regard the selection of a serious and forceful middle -of-the-road VP, with governing experience and no baggage would be a major boost. The two would act as a team---not the VP quietly cheerleading for Harris in the background as is the usual practice---and that could reassure many who might question Harris's capabilities based on her past performance.
You make a very good point, Tony. Most lay people -- journalists, pundits, consultants and politicians -- treat polling numbers as if they're not subject to error. It's why I like to look at different data from a variety of research methodologies. I like your idea to use double the stated standard error.