• by Karl Greenberg , February 27, 2009

Edmunds is predicting that February auto sales will hit 685,000 units, a 41.4% decrease from the month last year. The Internet auto sales, marketing and research firm says the industry is looking at a 4.6% increase for February over January.

Many automakers, desperate to show something silver around the roiling thunderheads of economic catastrophe, are pointing to that month-over-month improvement--since February is often dreadful, and usually worse than January for car sales. But don't cheer, says Todd Turner, president of L.A.-based auto market firm Car Concepts.

"Everyone wants to think maybe we are up-trending, but there are too many extenuating circumstances for comparing month-over-month," he says. "It's irrelevant because one month can have different weather conditions, different floor traffic, etc. Especially this year, with the election, a complete change in government--there are huge changes."

Unfortunately, those month-over-month numbers are the only positive ones on the horizon. Edmunds predicts that Chrysler's sales will drop 53.1%, Ford's 47.5%, and GM's 46.2%, while Honda's will drop 32.1%, Nissan, 32.9%, and Toyota 36.3%.

Jesse Toprak, executive director of industry analysis for Edmunds.com, says the market is just plain volatile. "The fluctuation in car sales and the instability of the stock market are just two examples of the volatility in the marketplace, which is wreaking havoc on consumer confidence and hampering any economic recovery."

The firm estimates the combined monthly U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors at 44.2% for the month--down from 52.2% in February last year, but up from 43% in January 2009.

Still, for those looking to find some solace from January versus February numbers there is the likelihood (if Edmunds is right) that the only automaker among the top six to post month-over-month declines this time around will be Toyota. Edmunds.com predicts that the Torrance, Calif. automaker will see sales drop 5% in February versus January, lowering share to 16.3% from 17.9% last month.

Chrysler, which is in line to sell about 67,000 vehicles this month, will, if so, see a 9.1% jump from January this year, giving a slightly better market share--9.8%--than last month's 9.4%.

The firm predicts that Ford sales will improve 5.5% from January, giving the automaker 14.1% of new car sales for the month--up from 14% in January. General Motors, which Thursday posted a $30.9 billion loss--its fourth annual loss in a row and second-worst ever--may see an 8.4% increase in sales from January, keeping market share above 20% from 19.6% in January.

Among other Japanese brands, Honda is line to see a 5.9% sales increase from last month, giving it 11% market share; Nissan will get a modest 3.1% increase from January for 8.1% share.

Toyota, however, is likely to get a big lift from Consumer Reports' latest annual survey of the most reliable vehicles, in which Toyota won five of the top 10 picks, and the Japanese companies won the top four spots in the survey. Honda did as well--being voted, for the third year in a row, best all-around vehicles for American drivers.

The domestics, by contrast, were three of the bottom four vehicles, and near the bottom overall among 15 automakers ranked: Ford was 12th, General Motors was 14th, and Chrysler was in last place.

Says Turner: "[Consumer Reports] surveys can affect a brand's image to the extreme, so that if someone is not so sure about a given brand or they are in the market and they see that nothing from a car company is recommended, that has the ability to keep them away. For consumers who go to ratings, it carries a lot of weight."