• by Paul Newnes , April 29, 2009

Considering the sophistication of humans as mammals, it is still interesting how we are doomed to repeat the same behavioral patterns as our primate ancestors, even when is comes to social media.

IT research consultancy Gartner has made a considerable business around describing this, specific to technology. Its model is known as the Hype Cycle, and it shows the key change points, to no particular scale, of people's attitudes to new technologies. Where a technology lies on the hype cycle has implications as to the level of investment a company might appropriately make in it.

The points as shown in the chart are fairly self explanatory, but essentially illustrate that a mad dash towards a technology causes an inflated notion of what it can deliver; an opposite reaction caused by the realization that the technology isn't a panacea and a lot of time / money / effort has been invested for little return; and, finally, a growing sensibility towards a technology's value based application.

There is a fairly easy translation of this model to social media. The recent Skittles /Twitter debacle shows a rush towards a technological medium with little thought as to the utility or value delivered to the end consumer. In fact, one might consider that, given the campaign was so open to abuse, the value delivered was firmly in the negative territory and thus in the "Trough of Disillusionment."

But how flawed is this approach? If a technology is at "the peak of inflated expectations," then is it fair to assume that the end-consumer has comparably inflated expectations? If so, then is the net sum zero?

This would seem a tremendously dangerous position to take. It is a fair assumption to make that the consumer's attitude towards social media has a quotient of hype, perhaps even equivalent to that of the brand or agency. But the disenchantment that will be felt afterwards by the consumer has a direct impact upon the brand's equity. This may well track with the overall disenchantment trend of the new medium, but will be more or less guaranteed not to outperform.

The irony is that mediocrity may involve having greater visibility than a sensible, utility /value driven social media campaign.

So, compare and contrast the release of new Ford car models in the U.S., a relatively simple but well-structured exercise in user-generated content, versus Skittles. In the short run, Skittles had far greater visibility but, over the medium to long run, will be recognized as a less than mediocre campaign.

In this instance it would seem the brains behind Skittles went purely for visibility, rode the peak and then fell squarely into the trough.

And, the moral of the Hype Cycle? If you even suspect a technological medium is at the peak of inflated expectations, go for a pure visibility campaign at your peril.