• by Wayne Friedman , May 30, 2009

The start of the TV upfront market may begin by week's end -- but a lot would have to fall into place, according to media executives.

As of late last week, few TV marketers were in any rush to figure out budgets for the upcoming TV season -- estimates that are then registered by media agencies to TV networks and programmers.

Still, TV selling executives are floating a long-shot prospect that should some of the bigger media agencies -- such as OMD USA, Starcom MediaVest Group or Group M -- get a better handle on their clients' budgets over the next couple of days, some business could commence by Friday.

Most media-buying executives expect a mid-June start to the annual TV advertising buying event. One executive of a mid-size media agency said his clients did not want to start until after the July 4th weekend.

Currently, broadcast and cable network executives are in the midst of mapping out their price indexes for all shows for TV advertisers. A critical factor for NBC will be where to set an index for the new Jay Leno show -- which many expect to be under a 100 index. Many clients expect their mix of prime-time shows to drastically change with NBC because of Leno's move to 10 p.m., especially those TV advertisers that buy many scripted 10 p.m. dramas on the network.

What are media executives doing right now while waiting for budgets? Shelley Watson, senior vp and director of entertainment for Santa Monica, Calif.-based media agency RPA, says she is getting caught up on all the new season's pilots.

For weeks, this season's upfront ad market has been positioned as a slower-moving affair than in recent years, specifically due to weaker economic conditions versus that of a year ago. Some are predicting big declines in overall TV upfront spending -- in part due to major U.S. automotive makers such as General Motors and Chrysler, at or near financial bankruptcy status.

Media agency and Wall Street estimates are that overall declines in spending could be anywhere from 5% to 10% or more, landing all broadcast network upfront advertising commitments at some $7.5 billion. Cable estimates suggest a smaller adjustment, putting its upfront take in the low $7.0 billion-dollar range.

Media sellers have been buoyed in recent days over some positive signs that the economy is slowly turning around.