• by Mark Walsh  @markfwal, July 8, 2009

You can't accuse Forrester Research of being overly effusive about mobile marketing. In its latest interactive forecast, the firm describes mobile as "one of the most anticipated, least adopted interactive channels in the mix."

Forrester analyst Shar VonBoskirk goes on to cite hurdles such as complexity around metrics, carrier relationships and limited consumer mobile data use as stifling mainstream mobile marketing today. The firm doesn't expect mobile spending to pick up until mid-2011 as brands continue to rely on more established avenues for flogging products and services.

Over the next five years, Forrester projects 27% annual growth in U.S. mobile marketing spend from $391 million this year to $1.3 billion in 2014. Compare that to eMarketer's forecast, which predicts mobile ad spending will hit $3.3 billion by 2013. Even assuming the larger figure, that amount is still tiny compared to the $37.2 billion eMarketer projects for online ad dollars by 2013.

Certain factors weigh in mobile's favor, though. Among key trends fueling growth are increasing mobile data use, branded mobile apps and the overall maturing of the medium, according to Forrester. The last of these trends includes a growing body of standards from groups like the Mobile Marketing Association. At the same time, the spread of services like mobile search, from established players like Google, Microsoft and Yahoo, will provide familiar types of ad inventory.

Emerging technologies like near field communication will also play a role in mobile growth by turning devices into the equivalent of debit cards. Now if they could just come pre-loaded with cash.