• by Don Seaman , Featured Contributor, August 13, 2009

Nigel Lythgoe compares it to the Beatles breaking up.

And, no, this former executive producer of "American Idol" wasn't talking about the death of Michael Jackson, America turning socialist, or - dare we even say - the digital transition.

He was talking about Paula Abdul leaving "American Idol." This reactionary bit of hyperbole shouldn't be that much of a surprise in a time when Jon and/or Kate's lives often masquerade for above-the-fold news.

Yes, Paula is leaving "Idol." Congress may set aside the health-care debate to weigh in. What will happen to the franchise that she's leaving behind? Can it survive?

It should be just fine, thank you.

Generally speaking, franchises are bigger than an employee - even those franchises identified by one person. For decades, "The Tonight Show" meant Johnny Carson, until it didn't. Howard Cosell was synonymous with "Monday Night Football." Paula Abdul is neither Johnny nor Howard; she's probably closer to Doc Severinsen or Don Meredith. Her unpredictability added color and humanized the show, much like Doc's jackets or Dandy Don's malaprops. She's a celebrity moon, orbiting the mother planet.

The most relatable and relevant comparison is to the "Monday Night Football" franchise, where the personalities in the booth become part of the spectacle of the show, but the real draw is the game.

In fact, when the biggest celebrity in the NFL booth, John Madden, joined MNF in 2002, the ratings for the season were the lowest ever to that point. And that's after the Dennis Miller debacle. So it just goes to show how much a "big name" might pull in more viewers - or not, as the case may be.

Yet, the judges of "Idol" do make more of an impact on the proceedings than the voices of "MNF." Football is not a subjective event - John Madden stopped being relevant to the people actually playing the game when he stopped coaching. Paula Abdul directly impacts the "Idol" process, so there are people who might be more inclined to tune in to see her than would tune in for Madden, or any other talking head. But save for the hardcore Paula Abdul Fan Club members from the 1980s, most people came to "Idol" for the singing, not the judges. So the main attraction remains intact.

But this isn't to say that there aren't cracks forming in the foundation of the "Idol" monolith. This past season's 18-49 rating was down over 17% compared to last season, and 38% below the ratings peak of 2005. This is the sharpest drop-off of any demo we looked at - followed closely by Teen viewers. So if the biggest drops are coming from viewers under 50, then that just leaves...an aging show. For Fox, that used to mean adults 35+. Now it's 50+.

In fact, ratings for this past year are very close to the ratings it delivered during its second season - before it was the undisputed top show on television. The ratings all have a very bell-curve look to them -- for all but A50+.

Ratings across NAD breaks are down - and not just the most affluent ones. It's showing over 60% declines (since Jan 06) in HHs with a HoH under 25 years old, and it's lost almost 2/3 of Black HHs. Almost 60% declines in all homes with kids (both with kids under 6 and under 18). And there's a 25% decline in HHI $100K+. The largest HHI decline is for those under $20K.

Add it up - HoH under 25, families with kids, HHI under $20K, and "Idol" is losing its "everyman" audience. It's not as broad of a cross-section of "America" as before. Those younger viewer ratings indicate its shelf life may be shortening - because if a show has no viewers to replace the ones that turn "undesirable" (i.e., 55+), its future is finite.

To paraphrase LBJ and Cronkite, Fox might have to start thinking "If we've lost Middle America, we've lost Idol."

So this is the first big challenge for "American Idol." Just as adding Kara "stop calling me Yoko" DioGuardi didn't end up being the "Cousin Oliver" moment for the show last year, losing Paula isn't going to cause it to leapfrog the Great White either. Only losing Simon Cowell would do that. And now that he's re-upped for three more years, Fox probably won't have to worry about the show circling the shark - or the drain - immediately.

But the signs are beginning to show; "Idol" may be going down like the Titanic. The "unsinkable" show for Fox is slowly sinking. But Paula Abdul isn't steering it into the iceburg - she just got off a few ports early, long before the sharks became an issue.

Meanwhile, Randy Jackson is considering an embarrassing tax fraud scandal just to up his Q Score.