• USA Today, Tuesday, October 6, 2009 10:49 AM

I was getting mighty confused as I cruised around the Web this morning with various stories sending messages as mixed as those offered by politicians running for reelection. But Jayne O'Donnell puts it all into perspective with this lede: "Here's what the top retail prognosticators are saying: Americans will buy slightly more, slightly less or the same as they did last holiday season."

O'Donnell says that forecasters are just as confused as I was. "The NRF today will predict that holiday retail sales will be down 1%, its most dire holiday forecast ever. The International Council of Shopping Centers last week predicted sales will be up 1%, and Deloitte said two weeks ago it believes sales will be flat."

Kurt Salmon Associates retail strategist John Long says it's all a guessing game. "The only thing you can take to the bank about this holiday season is that it's not going to change very much from last year, except perhaps for less panic."

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