Paris-based Publicis Groupe may claim to be the largest digital advertising organization in the world, with 25% of its revenues now derived from digital media, but its lead advertising forecasting
unit - ZenithOptimedia - has reduced its outlook for the role the biggest source of digital media - the Internet - is playing in the overall advertising economy. In its most recently quarterly
forecasting update released this morning, ZenithOptimedia now projects the Internet will account for $54.087 billion in worldwide ad spending during 2009, down nearly $5 billion from the $58.703
billion estimate it entered the year with. While the Internet's share of total worldwide ad spending has actually nudged up two-tenths of a point since then, it is down three-tenths of a point from
ZenithOptimedia's last forecast in July.
While online media is taking fewer total advertising dollars, ZenithOptimedia's forecast indicates it is taking a bigger slice of a receding
advertising pie during the global economic recession. The Internet's share of total ad spending in 2009 now is estimated to be 2.1 points higher than it was in 2008.
Looking forward, however,
ZenithOptimedia has dramatically reduced the outlook for Internet spending and share in 2011, the furthest date in its current forecasting model. The agency now believes Internet ad spending will
total $65.557 billion in 2011, down more than $18 billion from its initial forecast coming into this year. Even more significantly, the Internet's share of worldwide ad spending has been adjusted
downward from a projection of 15.6% in December of 2008 to ZenithOptimedia's current projection of 14.9%.
While it has reduced its overall expectations for online media, the agency nonetheless
remains bullish on the medium, "The Internet is the only medium we expect to grow in 2009, by 9.2%. This is slightly lower than the 10.1% growth we forecast in July, but we have downgraded Internet
advertising by less than the market as a whole."
ZenithOptimedia said that most of the Internet advertising growth currently is coming paid search and "innovative" new formats.
"In the
US - where we have the most detailed breakdown of Internet advertising by type - we forecast paid search will grow by 20% in 2009, while Internet video grows 19%, social media grows 45% and mobile
grows 69%," the agency's new report reads. "Traditional display and classified are practically static in comparison: we forecast them to grow by 3% and 2% respectively this year."
PRESS
RELEASE
Global Internet Ad Spending/Share
Estimates Are Trending Downward |
|
| 2009 | 2011 |
| Internet Ad Spending | Share Of All Ad Spending | Internet Ad Spending | Share Of All Ad Spending |
October '09 | $54.087 billion | 12.3% | $65.557 billion | 14.9% |
July '09 | $56.797 billion | 12.6% | $72.085
billion | 15.1% |
April '09 | $54.298
billion | 12.1% | $69.695 billion | 14.6% |
December
'08 | $58.703 billion | 12.1% | $84.145 billion | 15.6% |
Source: ZenithOptimedia Group |