• by Meir Zohar , January 11, 2010

One of the trends in online advertising last year was undoubtedly the use of data. From leading agencies, ad networks and publishers to the FTC, everyone wanted to have their say regarding data, who owns it and how it will be used.

As I look towards 2010, what is definite is data's importance in online advertising. The cookie won't crumble -- data's role in online advertising will only increase.

With that in mind, here are my data-driven predictions for 2010:

1. Real-Time Bidding will get real. One of the terms that has started generating buzz in the second half of 2010 is 'Real-Time Bidding' (RTB), thanks to Google's announcement that it was adding RTB functionality to their DoubleClick Exchange 2.0. But RTB means somewhat different things to different people, so one of the challenges for our industry in 2010 will be the standardization of what RTB means to all the players in our ecosystem - exchanges, publishers, ad networks and advertisers. In addition, the technology needed to support RTB isn't simple. After extensive work, our R&D team will be making RTB available in Q1 2010. And now we're working on getting our buying and selling partners on-board, understanding the ramifications of buying audiences instead of inventory, with bids which are processed within 50 milliseconds.

2. Social Marketing will get smarter about data with consumer-friendly business models. One of the big stories of online advertising in 2009 was undoubtedly Facebook achieving profitability. And after several tries, the company went into the black because of improved advertising results from easy-to-use ad programs which offered an unprecedented level of targeting - based on user data. In 2010, I expect to see Facebook's profitability grow, as will the profitability of other social networks, which are smart (and transparent) about how they leverage consumer data. In addition, I expect to see other publishers, thirsty for more data, partner with social networks, while advertisers and particularly agencies, will reach out to create data sharing partnerships.

3. The recession will end, but post-recession won't be like it was pre-recession. We're already seeing signs that the recession is coming to an end, but the climb out of the recession will be slow. Some industries, most notably print media, will never return to their previous levels. Even digital advertising will keep this recession in the rear view mirror, with marketers and agencies making smarter buys driven by data and keeping a close eye on how that data impacts performance. Every campaign (even branding campaigns) will have a performance metric and every campaign will eventually use some type of advanced targeting data.

4. Ad agencies will increase their use of data. Since GroupM announced last February that all of their clients' advertiser data was confidential, it's been clear that advertisers were going to increase their use of data, even to the point of claiming ownership (which, based on the recent AAAA and IAB updates to the standard Ts&Cs is drawing some new battle lines in 2010) I'll even go on a limb and predict that we'll see one holding company name a Chief Data Officer in 2010. Ad Networks will probably be hurt most by this trend, as data use will be pushed via centralized buying groups (Cadreon, VivaKi, et al.) while the smart networks -- the ones that can add real value to their agency partners -- will thrive. Those networks that can't show their partners' added-value will merge or wither.

5. Exchanges will play a greater role in online advertising. Much to the chagrin of some premium publishers, we'll see greater use of exchanges from Google's DoubleClick exchange to Right Media's renewed RMX exchange fueled by better and more liquid data integrations. Users will be more confident in their use of exchanges in part because the impressions are now more verifiable due to tools like AdSafe and DoubleVerify. Beyond this, I believe that online marketers will increase their comfort level with exchanges, and use them for procuring other ad-related services, including freelance creative and research services.

6. Behavioral Optimization. In the same way that contextual ad technology companies have relied on machine learning technology to optimize their ad serving for the better part of this last decade, we will see a growth in behavioral optimization - the use of advanced algorithms and machine learning technology to add an additional layer of optimization to behavioral targeting. This technology can analyze and optimize data patterns in milliseconds in order to improve behavioral ad targeting.

As we move forward 2010, all the data points to these predictions for the coming year. What do you think? Please comment and let us know.