Publicis Groupe's ZenithOptimedia believes the 2010 worldwide advertising market will gain slightly from its earlier estimates -- more than doubling its earlier estimated growth rate to 2.2% over 2009 to a total of $456 billion.
Expected increases from the two biggest media categories -- TV and online advertising spending -- contributed to ZenithOptimedia's higher estimates. The big ad agency group expects there to be 4.3% more TV media dollars and 13.9% more online ad money at work this year. Internet advertising will climb 15.4% next year and 17.1% in 2012.
ZenithOptimedia's forecast of TV's share of the global ad market will rise to 40.6% in 2012, from 39.4% in 2009. This is the result of more TV media buying in developing markets. Internet ad spending should increase its share to 17.1% in 2012, from 12.6% in 2009.
This would be over a percentage point higher than its earlier 0.9% growth estimate. This is the second time in the last 18 months that ZenithOptimedia has upgraded its advertising forecast.
"Confidence in the global economic recovery, while tentative, continues to grow, and this improvement has been apparent in ad markets across the world," ZenithOptimedia said in a statement.
But geographically it's still a mixed picture. North America is forecast to be down 1.5% this year; Western Europe up 0.4%, and Asia-Pacific will be 5.9% higher. Central and Eastern Europe will improve 5.7%, Latin America will climb 9.2%, and Africa/Middle East/Rest Of World will gain 6.3%.
In the U.S., ad spending will slip another 2%. Still, this is better than 2009's 12.9% decline. Things will turn around in 2011, when the U.S. will inch up with a 1.6% gain in ad spending. Ad spending will grow 1.8% in North America.
Overall, next year should be even better. ZenithOptimedia said global ad spending should grow by 4.1% in 2011 and 5.3% in 2012, from a 2010 total of $456 billion.
The agency group also noted that newspapers' market share would fall to 19.4% by 2012 from 23.1% in 2009. Magazines would be down to 8.6% from 11.6% for the same period.