According to analysts at Barclays Capital, ad forecasts for most media have been raised, including a strong boost in radio expectation, and local TV has moved into double digits. Barclays estimates
that total 2010 U.S. advertising will grow 5.5% year-over-year in 2010 vs. prior estimate for +3.5% year-over-year. The largest source of category upside to the prior estimates was automotive and
political TV advertising, particularly in the back half of 2010.
The Analysts note that optimism has been growing in the key automotive sector throughout the first quarter. They expect that the
automotive advertising category for both the manufacturers and dealers will continue to strengthen. In 2009 the automotive advertising category as a percentage of the total fell roughly 200 basis
points (bps) vs. 2008, or roughly $3.5 billion year-over-year.
The report anticipates that automotive could potentially regain this $3.5 billion in 2010, driving upside for those media
heavily exposed to automotive advertising dollars - specifically the local TV stations, sports entertainment cable networks, local radio, and outdoor. Auto spending could bleed outward into more
non-traditional cable networks given the current state of the relatively expensive TV scatter marketplace, says the report.
Other factors driving the more optimistic expectations include
clarity about the Supreme Court decision which lists restrictions on corporate spending on federal candidates and continued upbeat remarks from the big seven entertainment companies about double-digit
growth in scatter pricing (via Broadcasting & Cable).
Barclays Capital Advertising Forecast for 2010 (Year-Over-Year % Change) |
Medium | Orig. Forecast | 2/15/2010 | 3/26/2010 |
Total TV (incl. Olympics
& political) | 4.60% | 10.10% | 12.70% |
Internet (local & national) | 5.70% | 8.90% | 8.90% |
Outdoor | 0.00% | 6.00% | 6.00% |
Radio | -4.00% | 2.20% | 7.40% |
Magazines | -10.00% | -3.00% | 2.00% |
Newspapers | -10.00% | -5.80% | -3.30% |
Yellow Pages | -9.00% | -4.50% | -8.00% |
Total US Advertising (incl. Olympics & political) | -0.30% | 3.50% | 5.50% |
Total US Advertising (ex. Olympics & political) | -1.40% | 1.80% | 3.70% |
TV Forecast Breakdown |
National
network TV (incl. Olympics) | 4.50% | 7.80% | 9.80% |
National cable networks | 5.50% | 6.00% | 6.50% |
Local broadcast (incl. political) | 3.00% | 5.00% | 10.00% |
Source: Barclays Capital, March 2010 |
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